Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-01 09:49Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the I2509 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated that he still expects the Fed to cut interest rates once this year, and there's much uncertainty about how tariffs affect prices. In terms of supply - demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, while domestic port inventories slightly increased; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of steel mills and hot metal output increased, and the demand for iron ore remained supported. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are mixed, but the reduction of long - position orders in the mainstream is greater, and the short - term market may face pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are moving downward with an increasing green bar. Operationally, sell on rebounds and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 708.50 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan; the position volume was 654,854 lots, down 13,897 lots. - The spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 23.5 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 55,405 lots, up 2,027 lots. - The DCE warehouse receipts of I were 3,300.00 lots, up 500.00 lots. - The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 93.15 US dollars/ton, down 0.87 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 751 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 666 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 43 yuan, up 5 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 94.15 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.65, up 0.05. - The estimated import cost was 776 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 3,357.60 million tons, down 149.10 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,413.50 million tons, down 359.40 million tons. - The weekly inventory at 45 ports was 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills was 8,847.47 million tons, down 88.77 million tons. - The monthly import volume of iron ore was 9,813.00 million tons, down 501.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore were 18 days, unchanged. - The daily output of 266 mines was 41.33 million tons, up 1.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines was 65.69%, up 2.14 percentage points. - The inventory of iron concentrate in 266 mines was 53.36 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; the BDI index was 1,489.00, down 32.00. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 20.69 US dollars/ton, down 0.47 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 6.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.06 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points. - The monthly domestic crude steel output was 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 11.61%, up 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.94%, up 0.07 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 16.54%, up 0.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.39%, down 0.99 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the global iron ore shipments totaled 3,357.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,882.3 million tons. - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,413.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,363.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 199.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,217.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 63.7 million tons [2].