Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-01 09:49Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The HC2510 contract rebounded with reduced positions on Tuesday. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased again, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.59%. Factory inventory increased while social inventory decreased, and the total inventory increased by 0.99 million tons. Overall, hot - rolled coil production remains at a high level, terminal demand is relatively resilient, raw material coal and coke prices have declined, weakening cost support, and short - term market conditions may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 axis. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,136 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - HC main contract position: 1,522,628 lots, down 3,081 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 in HC contracts: 47,818 lots, down 31,083 lots [2]. - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - HC warehouse receipts on the SHFE: 66,957 tons, down 586 tons [2]. - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 133 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,180 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,110 yuan/ton [2]. - HC main contract basis: 74 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 50 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 706 yuan/wet ton, down 7 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Domestic iron ore port inventory: 139.3023 million tons, up 0.3607 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 738,100 tons, down 73,100 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.2751 million tons, down 65,000 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 772,600 tons, up 80,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.84%, unchanged [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2724 million tons, up 0.0179 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.59%, up 0.45 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 782,200 tons, up 17,000 tons [2]. - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.6294 million tons, down 7,100 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 86.55 million tons, up 0.53 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 1.01 million tons, up 0.016 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.6485 million vehicles, up 0.0298 million vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.6863 million vehicles, up 0.0967 million vehicles [2]. - Air - conditioner production: 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 8.51 million units, up 0.331 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 9.412 million units, down 0.239 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month and back in the expansion range. It was the 8th time in the past 9 months that the index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2]. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index in June was 56.6%, down 5.7 percentage points year - on - year and up 3.9 percentage points month - on - month, showing a decline in the automobile circulation industry's sentiment [2]. - Since 2025, China's billet exports have increased too rapidly year - on - year. After annualized calculation, it may exceed 10 million tons. Massive billet exports are not conducive to the industry's energy conservation, carbon reduction, and green transformation. Enterprises are advised to look at the long - term and be cautious about billet exports [2].