瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Internationally, the arrival of the monsoon season has improved the outlook for major sugar - producing countries in Asia, and the expectation of loose supply has suppressed raw sugar prices. However, less rainfall in southern India has weakened the optimistic expectation, and the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of June decreased by 22.1% year - on - year, limiting the decline. Domestically, in May 2025, China's sugar imports increased significantly, and the import pressure has risen. But approaching the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks may recover, providing some support for prices, showing a short - term rebound trend. Later, attention should be paid to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the main contract position is 309,811 lots, down 2551 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 23,749, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 31,156 lots, up 471 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4334 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4384 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5501 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5566 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5895 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Liuzhou is 6150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 225.66 million tons, up 70.4 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.39%, down 0.11 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.39%, down 0.11 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.43%, down 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.87%, up 0.02 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Brazilian Sugarcane Association reported that in the first half of June, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 22.1% year - on - year to 2.45 million tons. Sugar mills used 51.54% of the sugarcane to produce sugar, compared with 49.68% in the same period of the previous season; the sugar yield per ton of sugarcane decreased by 4.37% year - on - year to 128.66 kg/ton [2]