豆粕：面积报告低于预期，有利于支撑期价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lower-than-expected soybean planting area in the US in 2025 is beneficial for supporting soybean prices. Although the market has not fully priced in the positive impact of the reduced soybean planting area due to trade friction concerns, it will be reflected if conditions permit. The higher-than-expected quarterly inventory report has a negative impact, but its persistence is limited as inventory data will change with demand [1][16]. - The trade agreement is always the most important driving factor for US soybeans. Additionally, attention should be paid to the weather in the main soybean-producing areas in the US, the soybean's good-to-excellent rate, and US tariff policies [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 USDA Planting Area Intentions Report - The USDA's June planting area intentions report estimated that the US soybean planting area in 2025 would be 83.38 million acres, lower than the market expectation and a year-on-year decrease of about 4.2%. The estimated corn planting area was 95.203 million acres, slightly lower than the market expectation and a year-on-year increase of about 5%. The soybean planting area in 2025 is the lowest since 2021, and the corn planting area is the highest since 2016 [4]. - The reduction in the US soybean planting area is beneficial for supporting soybean prices. The report data is positive for US soybeans and negative for US corn prices. The market has fully priced in the pressure of corn's increased planting area, but has not fully priced in the positive impact of the reduced soybean planting area [5]. 3.2 USDA Quarterly Inventory Report - According to the USDA's June 30, 2025, quarterly grain inventory report, as of the quarter ending June 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 1 billion bushels, a year-on-year increase of about 3.9%, higher than the market expectation of 980 million bushels and at the highest level for the same period since 2021. The on-farm inventory was about 410 million bushels, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%, and the off-farm inventory was about 596 million bushels, a year-on-year increase of about 18% [13]. 3.3 Report Impact and Future Outlook - The lower-than-expected soybean planting area in the US in 2025 is beneficial for supporting soybean prices. The planting area intentions report is positive, while the quarterly inventory report is negative, but the impact of the planting area report is greater and crucial for the formation of US soybean production in 2025 [16]. - Future points of attention include: the weather in the main US soybean-producing areas, as the monthly forecast shows high temperatures and less precipitation in some areas in July, and the short-term forecast shows normal precipitation and slightly high temperatures in the next two weeks; the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans, as the data in June 2025 was lower than the same period last year, and the market may price it in if it continues to be low; and US tariff policies, trade negotiations, or trade agreements, as the trade agreement is the most important driving factor for US soybeans [2][17].