棉花月报：美棉报告多空交织，郑棉延续震荡-20250701

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This month, cotton prices fluctuated and rose. The June USDA report was bullish, but the planting area report and growth conditions were bearish, causing U.S. cotton to fluctuate monthly [6]. - In the domestic market, the decrease in cotton imports and the continuous consumption of commercial inventory led to a relatively fast de - stocking speed, supporting the futures market to fluctuate strongly. However, downstream demand remained weak, and the increase in the planting area of new - season cotton is expected to keep Zhengzhou cotton prices bottoming out at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - The June USDA report raised this year's exports, reducing the ending inventory by 400,000 bales to 4.4 million bales; it also lowered the next - year's harvested area and yield, with the new - year's production decreasing by 500,000 bales to 14 million bales and the ending inventory decreasing by 400,000 bales to 4.3 million bales [6]. - As of June in the U.S., cotton sowing was completed. The USDA expected the 2025 U.S. cotton area to be 10.12 million acres, higher than expected. The weather in the producing areas was generally good, and the cotton quality rate remained at a normal level. Meanwhile, the net export sales of U.S. cotton this month were relatively low [6]. - In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory was continuously consumed, and imported cotton was scarce. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and under the situation of weak supply and demand, cotton prices were hard to improve [6]. - The new - season cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the soil moisture was acceptable. Domestic surveys showed that the national cotton area in 2025 was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [6]. 3.2 Market Review - As of June 30, ICE Cotton 12 closed at 68.04 cents per pound, up 0.23 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly increase of 0.34%. CF2509 closed at 13,740 yuan per ton, up 465 points from the opening, with a monthly decrease of 3.50% [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - External Market - U.S. Cotton Balance Sheet: For the 2025/26 season, the expected harvested area was 8.19 million acres, a month - on - month decrease of 180,000 acres; the expected yield per acre was 820 pounds, a month - on - month decrease of 12 pounds; the expected ending inventory was 4.3 million bales, a month - on - month decrease of 900,000 bales [12][14]. - External Market - U.S. Cotton Sowing Progress: As of the week of June 22, the sowing rate was 92%, the previous week was 85%, the same period last year was 93%, and the five - year average was 95%. The cotton quality rate was 47%, the previous week was 48%, and the same period last year was 56% [12][17]. - External Market - U.S. Cotton Exports: As of the week of June 19, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2024/2025 season were 27,000 bales, compared with 83,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 9.94 million bales, accounting for 86.43% of the June USDA report [12][21]. - Domestic Demand - Spinning Mills: As of June 26, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 71.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%. New orders for spinning mills were few, and orders generally lasted about 15 days [25]. - Domestic Spinning Mill Inventory: As of the week of June 26, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.2 days of storage. The yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.98% [28]. - Domestic Cotton Inventory: As of June 27, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8799 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 111,600 tons (a decrease of 3.73%). As of June 26, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.00% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 412,000 tons [31]. 3.4 Spread Tracking There is no specific content provided for spread tracking other than the data sources and spread types.