Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-01 09:50Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, recent weather disturbances still exist, raw material acquisition resistance remains high, and acquisition prices are firm. In Hainan, there is a lot of rainy weather, which hinders rubber tapping operations, and the increase in raw material supply on the island is slow, lower than the same period in previous years. Supported by rigid delivery demand, local processing plants maintain a state of increasing prices for raw material acquisition. Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has continued to accumulate significantly, with a slight reduction in bonded warehouses and a significant accumulation in general trade warehouses. Downstream enterprises are mainly digesting inventory. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week showed mixed trends. Individual semi-steel tire enterprises arranged production suspension due to external factors, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire enterprises. The operation of all-steel tire enterprise equipment mostly continued to be stable. Individual enterprises that had undergone maintenance earlier resumed production, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have short-term maintenance plans at the end of the month and early next month, which will have a certain impact on the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, there is still an expectation that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will decline. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,150 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,095 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 rubber contract was 12,310 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was -875 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 rubber was 60 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 rubber was 1,785 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 159,610 lots, up 4,462 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 rubber contract was 41,060 lots, down 1,940 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was -16,021 lots, up 5,488 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 rubber was -5,878 lots, up 61 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 191,820 tons, down 70 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 rubber in the exchange were 27,217 tons, up 303 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,950 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,850 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was -145 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was -85 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of 20 rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,241 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the basis of the main 20 rubber contract was -69 yuan/ton, down 127 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 66.29 Thai baht/kg, down 0.54 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 63 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of rubber latex of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.9 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 137.4 US dollars/ton, down 8.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 12.4 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.64%, up 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.05%, down 0.24 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.93 days, up 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 48.15 days, up 0.73 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.32%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.96%, up 0.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.96%, up 0.36 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the next week (June 29 - July 5, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber production areas in Southeast Asia will decrease slightly compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and northern Vietnam, and in most other areas, precipitation is at a low level, and the impact on rubber tapping operations will be slightly reduced. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and in most other areas, rainfall is at a low level, and the impact on rubber tapping operations will not change much. As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, an increase of 2.40%. The bonded area inventory was 80,700 tons, a decrease of 0.62%; the general trade inventory was 551,400 tons, an increase of 2.85%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 1.39 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.58 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.28 percentage points [2]