2025年7月份投资策略报告：大盘震荡中枢有望稳步抬升-20250701

Investment Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to see a steady rise in the central oscillation point, with a cautious bullish outlook for July 2025 [8][42][47] - The report highlights the performance of major indices in June 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.23%, and the ChiNext Index by 8.02% [8][13][42] Market Environment Analysis - Global economic growth momentum is weakening, while domestic economic performance remains resilient, with May's industrial output increasing by 5.8% year-on-year [20][22] - The report notes that the U.S. manufacturing PMI for June remained stable at 52.0, indicating continued expansion, while the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was at 49.4, indicating contraction [20][21] - The report discusses the outcomes of the U.S.-China trade negotiations in London, which reached a framework agreement, potentially easing trade tensions and supporting overseas demand [31][36] Sector Allocation - The report recommends an overweight allocation in sectors such as finance, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals for July [48] - In the finance sector, banks are expected to benefit from a stable macro environment and policy support, with a projected return on equity (ROE) above 10% [48][49] - The TMT sector is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in AI and cloud computing, with significant capital expenditure expected from major players [50][51]