铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ferroalloy market has a certain rebound sentiment due to technical buying, but the spot market is dragged down by steel mill price - pressure and weakening costs. In the context of the terminal steel demand gradually entering the off - season, the long - term trend of ferroalloys remains relatively weak. The previous high - inventory and high - supply negative factors are gradually weakening, and the supply side maintains low - level supply with less pressure. Ferroalloys will continue the de - stocking trend, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down. There is an expectation of electricity price reduction for ferroalloys, and with the arrival of the southern wet season, the cost side is still expected to decline. The manganese ore price quotation for July is down, and combined with the negative feedback expectation of the black market in the demand off - season, ferroalloys are expected to remain weak. However, the position volume of ferroalloys has decreased, some funds have left the market. When the valuation is too low, it is easily disturbed by news. In the short term, there is a rebound, but the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.1%. The monthly price range forecast for silicon manganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.62% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 23.4% [2]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price decline, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement standing inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The ferroalloy market is affected by technical buying and has a rebound sentiment, but the spot market is under pressure from steel mills and cost weakening. In the long - term, the trend is weak. The high - inventory and high - supply situation is improving, and the de - stocking trend continues but at a slower pace. There are expectations of cost reduction, and the market is expected to be weak, but may rebound in the short - term with limited space [3]. 3.4利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - Silicon Iron: High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for silicon iron. Silicon iron has been falling, and its low valuation may lead to a rebound [6]. - Silicon Manganese: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon manganese industry. Silicon manganese has been falling, and its low valuation may lead to a rebound [6]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - Silicon Iron: There is a possibility of increased production due to profit repair. The electricity cost of ferroalloys is expected to decrease further. The inventory of iron enterprises is 6.94 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.47%, and the silicon iron warehouse receipt inventory is being re - registered after cancellation in June, which is higher than the historical average [7]. - Silicon Manganese: In the long - term, the real estate market is sluggish, and the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese production enterprises is 39.21%, a month - on - month increase of 2.82%; the weekly output is 17.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.47%. The enterprise inventory is 22.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.72%; the warehouse receipt is 46 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.12%; the total inventory is 68.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.16% [10]. 3.6 Daily Data - Silicon Iron: On July 1, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 136, the 01 - 05 spread was - 34, the 05 - 09 spread was 10, the 09 - 01 spread was 24. The spot prices in different regions showed some declines. The silicon iron warehouse receipt was 9109 [8]. - Silicon Manganese: On July 1, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 258, the 01 - 05 spread was - 26, the 05 - 09 spread was 64, the 09 - 01 spread was - 38. The spot prices in different regions also had some changes. The silicon manganese warehouse receipt was 88062 [9].