冠通研究：内需偏弱

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market has weak domestic demand, with downstream purchasing sentiment lacking and upstream factory quotes mostly stable or declining. The supply side has ongoing maintenance and restarts, with little fluctuation in daily production. Exports to ports are relieving upstream pressure, and enterprise inventories are expected to continue to decline. The demand side shows reduced agricultural purchasing willingness and decreased purchases by suppliers and compound fertilizer factories. Although the inventory has decreased this period due to port inspections and exports, the overall market is expected to be mainly in a consolidation phase, waiting for new market drivers [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures market opened low and moved lower during the day, with pressure, but rebounded at the end of the session. The fundamental situation is weakly stable, with support from the end of summer fertilizer sales and export shipments, but weakening downstream demand restricts upward movement. The market is expected to consolidate [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1707 yuan/ton, closed at 1721 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. The trading volume was 238,027 lots, an increase of 14,327 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 10,790 lots and short positions increased by 8,663 lots [2]. - Spot: Domestic demand is weak, downstream purchasing sentiment is low, and upstream factory quotes are mostly stable or declining. The mainstream ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1720 - 1750 yuan/ton [5]. Warehouse Receipts - On July 1, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 500, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotes declined, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis for the September contract was 59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [8]. - Supply: On July 1, 2025, the national daily urea production was 196,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.74% [10].