黑色产业数据每日监测-20250701

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The black commodity futures market was generally weak today. The supply of coking coal decreased due to safety inspections and environmental protection pressures, while the downstream procurement remained cautious. The overall coking coal inventory was still high, and the supply - demand structure only had a short - term structural relief. The upward space and sustainability of coal prices were restricted [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3136 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the iron ore main contract closed at 708.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke closed down, with coking coal down more than 3% [1] Market Analysis - In Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, production cuts occurred due to safety inspections, environmental protection pressures, and inventory issues. The domestic coking coal supply decreased. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 2% week - on - week to 82.5%. The coking coal inventory of mines decreased by 7.23% week - on - week to 463.1 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal both decreased. Russian coal imports decreased by about 600,000 tons since May, and the customs at three China - Mongolia ports will be closed for 5 days. The downstream procurement of coke and coking coal remained cautious, and the overall coking coal inventory was high. After the end of the safety production month in June, some coal mines resumed production, and the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter was almost certain, which would further impact the supply side [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices. Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Hot - rolled coils: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes. Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1] Summary - Before seeing the stable recovery of production data, be vigilant against the impact of sentiment and maintain the idea of lightly shorting on rebounds [1]