有色金属日报-20250701

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ (White stars) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not rated [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (White stars) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand fundamentals, and technical trends. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] - Some metals are in a state of high inventory, which affects their price trends and investment opportunities. For example, lithium carbonate has high inventory, and its price rebound is not stable [9] - Market sentiment and external events also have an impact on metal prices. For example, the US dollar index, fiscal policies, and manufacturing PMI data can all affect the price of non - ferrous metals [2][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper in the afternoon session increased in position and rose to 80,600 yuan. The spot copper was reported at 80,205 yuan, with a premium in Shanghai of 200 yuan and in Guangdong rising to 90 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference was still 2,100 yuan. In July, the LME Hong Kong warehouse will be put into use, and attention should be paid to the logistics impact. Technically, the short - term upward trend of Shanghai copper may reach above 81,000 yuan. Long - term trend trading is still recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today. The spot premium in East China continued to decline by 30 yuan to 40 yuan, the processing fee of aluminum rods in South China fell to negative, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase slightly. There are signs of advanced terminal consumption and off - season negative feedback. The recent improvement in macro - risk appetite has promoted the strength of non - ferrous metals. The position of the Shanghai aluminum index is at a high level in recent years, indicating great market divergence. Be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly, and the Baotai ADC12 quotation was stable at 19,500 yuan. The peak - season contract maintained a certain premium. The spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy is large, but the price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 only fluctuates around 400 yuan. If it expands, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy. Recently, the spot transaction price of alumina is 3,000 - 3,100 yuan. The price of Guinea ore has stabilized at 75 US dollars, corresponding to the cost in Shanxi of around 3,000 yuan. The domestic operating capacity has increased for six consecutive weeks to over 93 million tons, and the spot liquidity has improved. In the context of oversupply, the futures market fluctuates weakly, and it is advisable to short at high levels [3] Zinc - Trump promoted the "big and beautiful" bill, the US dollar index continued to decline, and the external metal market was strong, which pulled up the domestic market. The fundamentals of zinc still show an increase in supply and weak demand. The zinc price first declined and then rose during the day, and closed down overall. The weighted position decreased by more than 6,000 lots to 268,800 lots, and the funds flowed out by 184 million yuan. The 600,000 - ton zinc smelter in Huoshaoyun has started feeding production, and the new production capacities of Wanyang and Yunnan Copper have gradually come into production. There is still pressure on the domestic supply side, and zinc is still mainly recommended for short - selling on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded and fluctuated at a high level, and the market trading was active. In terms of spot, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,600 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel was 150 yuan. The loading progress of nickel mines in the Philippines has limited impact on the supply of the ore end, and the calming of the situation in Indonesia is still the main pressure on the ore end. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is quoted at 913 yuan per nickel point, and the support from upstream prices has weakened significantly recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory increased to 35,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased to 38,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory remained at a high level of around one million tons, with the latest report at 992,000 tons. Technically, Shanghai nickel is at the end of the rebound, waiting for the short - selling opportunity to mature [7] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin was driven by the sentiment in the copper market at the end of the session, and increased in position and rose nearly 270,000 yuan in the short term. Today's spot tin was 266,500 yuan, with a premium of 110 yuan over the delivery month. The tin market is in the off - season of consumption, and the price range of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan is considered a relatively high - level area. Contracts in the far - month are recommended for short - selling [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated and rebounded, and the market trading was active. The total market inventory continued to rise to the recent highest level of 137,000 tons. Downstream replenishment increased by 300 tons to 40,635 tons, and traders continued to replenish inventory by 1,000 tons to 37,000 tons. The confidence of downstream enterprises has significantly increased. It is understood that the downstream production schedule in July is relatively strong, and the factor of rushing for exports still exists. Technically, lithium carbonate is in a rebound, but the current inventory is still high, and the ore price is also in the rebound period. The rebound of the futures price is not stable. However, from another perspective, the industrial chain still needs time to digest the new price level around 60,000 yuan, and it is regarded as a short - term fluctuation [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon significantly dropped to 7,765 yuan/ton, and the market trading cooled down. As Yunnan entered the wet season, many industrial silicon plants started to resume production today. At the same time, there is a new expectation of resuming production from a large factory in Xinjiang after the rumor of production reduction. There are frequent fluctuations on the supply side. After the price reached the 8,000 - yuan/ton mark, the chasing - up momentum of long - position funds weakened. Coupled with the possible entry of some hedging funds, the futures price quickly dropped. In addition, the theme of "anti - involution" has once again sparked heated discussions recently, and the market's expectation of supply - side regulation policies has increased. In summary, the price of industrial silicon is at a low level, with a mixture of long and short themes, and its trend is expected to be mainly volatile [10] Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon dropped significantly to 32,700 yuan/ton, and the market trading cooled down, which was affected to some extent by the callback of the industrial silicon futures. The weak reality of polysilicon continues. In July, downstream enterprises continued to revise down their monthly production schedules, and the total inventory of polysilicon remained at a high level of 270,000 tons. The increase in supply from leading enterprises is not clear for the time being. However, from the perspective of the futures price, it is still in a state of discount. Coupled with the recent resurgence of the "anti - involution" theme and the increasing market expectation of supply - side regulation policies, the downward space is still relatively limited, and the trend is expected to maintain a volatile state [11]