冠通每日交易策略-20250701

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The copper market is affected by tariff issues and economic uncertainties, with the potential for price fluctuations. The price of copper is supported by the decline of the US dollar index [3]. - The price of coking coal is expected to be weak due to the high - production expectation on the supply side and the off - season consumption on the demand side [5]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate as the market is in a loose state and the upward movement of the futures price lacks fundamental support [10]. - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled down, and the supply and demand of crude oil have improved marginally. It is recommended to cautiously operate and lightly buy put options on crude oil [11][12]. - The price of asphalt is recommended to be cautiously operated, and it is advisable to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices as it is gradually entering the peak season [13]. - The price of PP is expected to oscillate at a low level due to factors such as new production capacity, slow downstream recovery, and the decline of crude oil prices [14][15]. - The price of plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level because of factors including new production capacity, the off - season of downstream demand, and the decline of crude oil prices [16]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short at high prices due to factors such as the decline of demand and the fall of coal prices [17][18]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas [19]. - The price of soybean oil is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather during the growth period and the US biodiesel policy [20][21]. - The price of rebar is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term under the suppression of weak demand [22][24]. - The price of hot - rolled coil may be under pressure if the billet export policy is restricted and the production capacity is released [25]. - The price of urea is expected to consolidate, waiting for new market drivers, with weak fundamentals and some support from export and the end of summer fertilizer sales [26][27]. Summary by Variety Copper - Market trend: Opened low and closed high with a late - session rally [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply is still increasing, the global copper inventory is being depleted at different speeds, and the demand is weak except for low - price purchases. The tariff issue may cause price fluctuations, and the decline of the US dollar index supports the price [3]. Coking Coal - Market trend: Opened low, fluctuated under pressure, and closed down more than 3% [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from coke enterprises is low, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Market trend: Opened high, closed low, and rallied at the end [10]. - Fundamentals: The price of spodumene is rising, the domestic production is increasing, the import is weakening, and the downstream demand is stable. The market is in a loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate [10]. Crude Oil - Market trend: Affected by geopolitical events [11]. - Fundamentals: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled down, the supply and demand have improved marginally, and attention should be paid to the OPEC + meeting. It is recommended to cautiously operate [11][12]. Asphalt - Market trend: Followed the decline of crude oil [13]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is restricted, and the basis has strengthened. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. PP - Market trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. - Fundamentals: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, the supply has new production capacity and some maintenance, the inventory pressure is high, and the price of crude oil has declined [14][15]. Plastic - Market trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. - Fundamentals: The start - up rate has increased, the downstream demand is in the off - season, the inventory pressure is high, and the price of crude oil has declined [16]. PVC - Market trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. - Fundamentals: The supply start - up rate has decreased, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the price of coal has declined. It is recommended to go short at high prices [17][18]. Soybean Meal - Market trend: Oscillated slightly with a 0.10% increase [19]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean data is neutral to slightly bearish, the domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, the inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [19]. Soybean Oil - Market trend: Oscillated with a 0.03% decrease [20][21]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean data has limited impact, the domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [20][21]. Rebar - Market trend: Rose first and then fell [22]. - Fundamentals: The supply has increased, the inventory depletion has slowed down, the demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [22][24]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Market trend: Rose slightly after facing resistance [25]. - Fundamentals: The supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand is weak, the cost support is weakening, and the export sustainability is questionable. The price may be under pressure [25]. Urea - Market trend: Opened low, was under pressure during the session, and rallied at the end to turn positive [26]. - Fundamentals: The supply has little change, the demand is weakening, the inventory is being depleted due to export, and the price is expected to consolidate [26][27].