能化震荡依然偏弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The energy and chemical sector remains weak in a volatile market. For various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc., the short - term and medium - term outlooks are mostly bearish, and the recommended strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: After the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the geopolitical premium in crude oil was quickly squeezed out. Fundamentally, it is strong in the short - term due to low inventory, but there is a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply under the OPEC+ production increase cycle [1]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a volatile state, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - cycle center of gravity is slowly moving down. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 507. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [1][3]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: Styrene production remains at a high level, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventory is at a neutral level, and the fundamentals are weak. There is an expectation of a significant increase in production capacity due to new plant commissioning in the medium term [7]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today without changing the downward path. After a large - scale gap reversal, the short - term resistance is not standard, and temporarily pay attention to 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [7]. Rubber - Logic: In May, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year, and China's rubber imports also increased year - on - year. Coupled with a sharp drop in the price of latex in the Thai production area, the expectation of increased supply is gradually being realized. On the demand side, the tire industry is in an overall over - supply situation, and the inventory of semi - steel tires has reached a historical high. The downstream demand expectation remains pessimistic. The reverse - seasonal inventory build - up of rubber inventory says it all [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level structure is also in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today, and there was a rebound at the end of the session to test the 14100 resistance again. Pay attention to the gain or loss of the short - term resistance level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 14100 [8]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are extremely weak. In addition to the weak demand expectation in the tire sector, there will be a large amount of production capacity of raw material butadiene plants put into operation this year. Currently, the operating rates of butadiene and cis - polybutadiene rubber have both reached historical highs, and there is a logic of cost collapse in the later stage [12]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure are both in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 11670. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12]. PX - Logic: Profits have recovered, and some PX plants have resumed production, with the operating rate increasing. The polyester demand side is weak, but due to the ongoing destocking, the short - term fundamentals are not weak [14]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily seen at 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14]. PTA - Logic: There is an expectation of a reduction in polyester production in July. Due to the tight PX inventory, the PTA operating rate has declined, and the short - term fundamental contradiction is not significant [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily seen at 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [16]. PP - Logic: The number of maintenance plants has increased, and the PP operating rate has declined. However, the newly put - into - operation production capacity has gradually increased recently, and the supply expectation is not weak. Demand is still weak during the off - season, and the short - term fundamentals are bearish [18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today. After reaching a new low in the small cycle, the short - term resistance level has moved down to 7140. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [18]. Methanol - Logic: The domestic weekly methanol operating rate is 78.1%, reaching a new high in the past five years, and the supply remains at a high level. With the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the previously shut - down plants in Iran will quickly resume, and the import expectation is still not weak. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak during the off - season, so the fundamentals are bearish [21]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today, with weakening trading volume, and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily seen at 2510. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [21]. PVC - Logic: The supply - side operating rate is at a historical medium level, and the supply is the same as the same period last year. The downstream terminal demand is still weak, and the operating rate remains at the lowest level in the same period. The fundamentals are regarded as bearish [23]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure are both in a downward trend. The increase in positions and decline today may further confirm the end of the rebound. The resistance is temporarily seen at 4955. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 4955 [23]. EG - Logic: The supply - side maintenance plants will gradually resume, and the polyester operating rate on the demand side has declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure are both in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term resistance is 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [26]. Plastic - Logic: The operating rate is lower than the same period last year, but the inventory is still high due to weak demand. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure are both in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today. The resistance is temporarily seen at 7450. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [28].