兴业期货日度策略-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bearish: Alumina, Soda Ash, Glass, Polyolefins, Rubber, Crude Oil [1][2][8][10] - Bullish: Stocks Index, Copper, Aluminum, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1][4] - Range - bound: Treasury Bonds, Precious Metals, Nickel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Steel (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore) [1][4][6] - Neutral: Methanol [8] 2. Core Views - The A - share market shows strong resilience with clear policy support, and the stock index is expected to move up gradually as market sentiment improves [1] - The bond market lacks directional drivers, and upward momentum is weak due to high market congestion and high valuations [1] - Precious metals prices are in high - level oscillations due to tariff policy uncertainties, but the long - term upward logic remains valid [1] - For various commodities, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy uncertainties are the main factors affecting price trends 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - A - shares strengthened on Monday, with the science - innovation sector leading the rise. The trading volume of the two markets was about 1.52 trillion yuan. The defense industry and media sectors led the gains, while the banking and non - bank financial sectors declined [1] - The domestic PMI index rose by 0.2% in June, indicating an overall expansion of the economic climate. Overseas, tariff uncertainties increased as the US tariff suspension period neared its end [1] - The stock index is expected to have an upward - moving central range as market sentiment remains optimistic [1] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The bond market weakened across the board yesterday, with the equity market performing strongly. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant [1] - The central bank continued net injections in the open market. Although the capital cost increased due to the end - of - quarter factor, it remained relatively stable [1] - The bond market lacks directional drivers, and upward momentum is weak due to high market congestion and high valuations [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - With less than 9 days left until the end of the tariff suspension period, the uncertainty of tariff policies has increased. Trump may announce a new tariff framework on July 4th [1] - The short - term price of gold is in high - level oscillations, but the long - term upward logic remains valid. The gold - silver ratio is high, and there is a possibility of correction [4] - It is recommended to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [4] 3.4 Base Metals Copper - The copper price remained in high - level oscillations. The domestic PMI data was good, and the US dollar index continued to decline [4] - The mid - year smelting and processing fee for Antofagasta was set at 0 yuan/ton, the lowest in history, indicating a continued tight supply of ore [4] - The non - US inventory continued to decline, and the domestic spot premium was rising. The copper price has support at the bottom [4] Aluminum and Alumina - The alumina price oscillated in the morning and declined at night. The Shanghai aluminum price remained in high - level oscillations [4] - Although there are concerns about future ore supply, the import ore price is stable, and the inventory is high. The alumina surplus situation remains unchanged, and it is advisable to short at high prices [4] - The supply of Shanghai aluminum is limited by production capacity, and the demand is uncertain. The low inventory and supply constraints still support the price [4] Nickel - The supply of high - grade laterite nickel ore remains tight, and the price is firm. The supply of ferronickel is abundant, but downstream demand is weak [4] - The production of refined nickel is no longer growing rapidly, but the surplus situation is difficult to improve in the short term [4] - The nickel price lacks directional drivers and is in a range - bound state. Selling options is a relatively better strategy [4] 3.5 Chemical Commodities Soda Ash - The production of Soda Ash by Yuanxing Energy has recovered, and the daily output has exceeded 100,000 tons. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the inventory is high [8] - It is recommended to hold short positions in the Soda Ash 09 contract and the long - glass 01 - short - soda ash 01 arbitrage strategy [8] Float Glass - The average sales rate of glass in the four major production areas dropped to 93%. The deep - processing orders decreased, and the production increased [8] - The supply surplus situation of glass remains unchanged, and it is advisable to short when the basis converges to a low level [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium ore has stabilized, but the supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand. The production continues to increase, while the downstream demand is weak [4] - The lithium carbonate price will be under pressure [4] Methanol - The production in June was 8.62 million tons, and it is expected to be 8.67 million tons in July. The production will decrease significantly in August due to increased maintenance [8] - The apparent demand increased by 8.8% in the first half of the year, and the supply is expected to tighten from August to September and November to December, supporting the price [8] Polyolefins - In June, the PE production was 2.61 million tons, and the PP production was 3.34 million tons. In July, the production is expected to increase to 2.7 million tons for PE and 3.4 million tons for PP [10] - Due to the off - season and increased supply, the polyolefin futures are expected to decline further [10] 3.6 Steel and Minerals Rebar - The spot price of rebar increased slightly, and the trading volume was average. The inventory increased for the first time last week [6] - The construction PMI index rebounded significantly in June, and infrastructure construction may progress rapidly. The supply - demand contradiction is limited [6] - The steelmaking cost has a significant impact on the price. It is necessary to pay attention to the coal mine supply recovery in the next two weeks [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil increased slightly, and the trading volume was weak. The manufacturing PMI index was better than expected, but the demand recovery was slow [6] - The supply - demand contradiction of hot - rolled coil is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the coal mine supply recovery [6] Iron Ore - The daily output of molten iron is expected to remain above 2.4 million tons. The import of iron ore will decline in July [6] - The supply - demand structure of iron ore will be less loose in July, and the price will move in a range [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The inventory of mines has reached an inflection point, and the replenishment of steel and coking enterprises exceeded expectations. The trading atmosphere has improved [8] - The coking coal price is expected to continue to rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions [8] Coke - The coking profit is at the break - even point, and the initiative to increase production is insufficient. The demand for coke is supported by the high molten iron output [8] - The coke spot market may have a price increase trend, and the futures price is likely to be strong [8] 3.8 Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East remain. OPEC countries may increase production in August [8] - The market driver has shifted to the supply side, and it is necessary to pay attention to the OPEC+ production plan [8] 3.9 Agricultural Products Cotton - In China, high - temperature weather in Xinjiang may affect new cotton growth, and the commercial inventory is decreasing. In the US, the drought area is shrinking [10] - The demand is in the off - season, but the downstream opening rate has not decreased significantly, and the inventory is being depleted [10] - The cotton price is expected to be well - supported [10] Rubber - The demand for rubber is weak due to high inventory in the tire industry. The upstream rubber tapping is progressing smoothly, and the supply is increasing [10] - The port inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the rubber price is expected to decline in oscillations [10]