钢材、铁矿石日报：限产扰动再现，钢矿强弱切换-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: The main contract price oscillated at a low level with a daily decline of 0.20%, and both volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the supply pressure of rebar is increasing while demand is weak. In this situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are under pressure. The positive factor is that the inventory inflection point has not appeared yet, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price rebounded after hitting the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and both volume and open interest contracted. At present, production restriction disturbances have reappeared, and hot - rolled coil prices are oscillating upwards. However, supply is stabilizing at a high level while demand is weakening, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices are still prone to pressure, and the upward driving force should be viewed with caution. Attention should be focused on production restriction situations [4]. - Iron ore: The main contract price weakened, with a daily decline of 1.32%, and both volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the demand for iron ore shows good resilience, providing strong support for ore prices. However, supply remains at a high level, and the improvement of demand is questionable. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. It is expected that ore prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Manufacturing PMI: In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month and returning to the expansion range. This is the 8th time the index has been above the boom - bust line in the past 9 months, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [6]. - Heavy - truck sales: In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% from May and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. The main reason for the increase is the environmental protection policy, specifically the implementation of the differential subsidy policy for the scrapping and replacement of old operating trucks [7]. - Steel raw material procurement costs: In May 2025, except for the slight month - on - month increase in the procurement costs of metallurgical coke, domestic pellets, and imported pellets, the procurement costs of other varieties decreased month - on - month, but the decline narrowed. Among them, the procurement costs of pulverized coal injection, steam coal, and alloys decreased relatively significantly [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - Black metal spot prices: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other products are provided, along with their price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,205 yuan, down 6 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) was 3,224 yuan, down 7 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - Futures prices of main contracts: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures are presented. For instance, the closing price of rebar futures was 3,003 yuan, down 0.20%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,136 yuan, up 0.06%; the closing price of iron ore futures was 708.5 yuan, down 1.32% [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - Steel inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of iron ore in 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18][25]. - Steel mill production: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][31][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. The production of construction steel mills has increased, and the weekly output of rebar has increased by 5.66 tons, reaching a relatively high level this year. Demand is weakly stable, and the weekly apparent demand has slightly increased by 0.72 tons. The weak demand restricts steel prices. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: There are changes in both supply and demand. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has increased by 1.79 tons, remaining at a high level this year. Demand resilience is weakening, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased by 4.44 tons. Although the downstream cold - rolled production is at a high level, the end of the Sino - US tariff "exemption period" may lead to external risks. It is expected that steel prices will be under pressure, and attention should be paid to production restriction situations [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed. Steel mills are actively producing during the off - season, and the terminal consumption of iron ore continues to rise. However, the arrival at ports has unexpectedly declined, and miners' shipments have also decreased. The supply pressure remains relatively high. It is expected that ore prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [38].