铜价午后增仓上行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Copper: The copper price increased with rising positions, and the main contract price exceeded 80,700. The macro - environment improved due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, along with a weakening US dollar. The inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 0.84 million tons compared to last week. The combination of macro and industrial factors is expected to keep the copper price strong [5]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price fluctuated upwards, and the position increased. The main contract price exceeded 20,600. The global macro - environment was favorable, but the downstream purchasing intention declined after the price increase, and the destocking of social inventory slowed down. The high profit of electrolytic aluminum plants led to large hedging pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure as the price approached the mid - June high [6]. - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated narrowly above 120,000 and rose in the afternoon with the non - ferrous sector. The global macro - environment improved, and the nickel price rebounded from the bottom. The upstream nickel mines in the Philippines and Indonesia remained strong, the downstream stainless steel was weak, and nickel sulfate was stable. After the price rebounded and exceeded 120,000, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: On July 1st, Jinchuan Group Copper and Precious Metals Co., Ltd. successfully completed its first deep - processing transfer business of non - ferrous metal processing trade. On June 30th, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 123,500 tons, a decrease of 0.84 million tons compared to the 23rd and 0.83 million tons compared to the 26th [9]. - Aluminum: In the first half of 2025, 74 domestic aluminum projects started or were put into production, including 49 projects such as Southwest Aluminum's 200,000 - ton recycled aluminum circular economy equipment project and 25 projects such as Lizhong Group's high - performance aluminum alloy new material project [10]. - Nickel: On July 1st, for the refined nickel in the Shanghai market, the mainstream reference contract was SHFE nickel 2508. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,720 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was + 600 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,770 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel was + 2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,920 yuan/ton; and nickel beans were - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,270 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: The report presents charts on copper basis, monthly spread, domestic visible inventory, overseas exchange inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory, overseas exchange inventory, alumina price trend, and alumina inventory [26][28][30]. - Nickel: Charts cover nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][40].