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玉米月报:美玉米继续寻底,国内玉米三季度或出现拐点-20250701
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-01 13:46
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In June, corn prices showed a volatile trend. The USDA supply - demand report in June had a limited impact on US corn, being neutral, while the planting area report significantly increased the planned planting area of US corn. Combined with the fast sowing speed of the new - season US corn and favorable weather in the production areas, the price of US corn was under pressure and trended weakly. In China, the continuous wheat harvest in June led to low wheat prices, triggering the state - reserve minimum purchase price, and many local reserves started to enter the market to buy wheat, supporting the wheat price. Corn was in the off - season period, with fewer shipments from traders, low vehicle arrivals at Shandong processing enterprises, and firm spot prices in Northeast China [6]. - In terms of demand, feed enterprises had relatively sufficient inventories, and the off - season of breeding demand restricted restocking, so feed enterprises purchased as needed. Meanwhile, the corn processing industry was entering the off - season, with low processing profits [6]. - Strategy: US corn will continue to decline to find the bottom. The entry of reserves into the market to buy wheat supports the firm wheat price. In the short term, the shipments of domestic corn traders are gradually decreasing, but the market is worried about the state - reserve corn selling, so the short - term corn price may fluctuate. In the medium - to - long term, as grain sources are gradually transferred to channels, channel dealers hold back supplies, port inventories continue to be consumed, imported corn remains low, and downstream demand recovers, there is still a supply - demand gap in the third quarter, supporting the bullish expectation for corn. However, domestic corn will still face the situation of traders selling in the later period, and it is expected that the corn price will decline from its high at the end of the third quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - As of June 30, CBOT07 corn closed at 409.00 cents per bushel, down 14.00 points from the previous month's close, a monthly decline of 3.31%. C2509 corn closed at 2,378 yuan per ton, up 19 points from the opening, a monthly increase of 0.81% [11]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Balance Sheet - US Corn - In the 2024/25 season, US corn exports increased by 50 million bushels, and the ending inventory decreased by 50 million bushels to 1.365 billion bushels. In the 2025/26 season, the total supply decreased by 50 million bushels to 17.21 billion bushels, and the ending inventory decreased by 50 million bushels to 1.75 billion bushels [12][13]. 3.2.2. Foreign - US Corn Growth - As of the week ending June 22, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 70%, lower than the market expectation of 72%, 72% in the previous week, and 69% in the same period last year. The emergence rate was 97%, 94% in the previous week, 96% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 98%. The silking rate was 4%, the same as in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 3%. As of the week ending June 24, about 16% of the US corn - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 17% in the previous week and 6% in the same period last year [16]. 3.2.3. Foreign - US Corn Exports - As of the week ending June 19, the net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were 741,000 tons, down from 904,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales of corn in the 2025/2026 season were 306,000 tons, up from 155,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative sales of US corn this season reached 54.7585 million tons, accounting for 81.35% of the June USDA report's estimate [19]. 3.2.4. Domestic Supply - Imported Corn - In May 2025, China imported 190,000 tons of corn and corn flour, a year - on - year decrease of 81.6%. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of corn and corn flour were 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93.7% [24]. 3.2.5. Domestic Demand - Feed Enterprises - With the low - running pig price, pig farming was near the break - even point, and downstream feed was purchased as needed. As of June 26, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, down 0.48 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45% and a year - on - year increase of 3.43% [27]. 3.2.6. Domestic Demand - Corn Starch Processing Enterprises - Recently, both enterprises that completed maintenance and those with new maintenance were observed. The regional operating rates of corn starch showed different trends, and the overall industry operating rate declined slightly. As of June 27, the corn processing volume of starch enterprises in June was 2.182 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 825,000 tons (27.44%) and a year - on - year decrease of 289,000 tons (11.70%) [30]. 3.2.7. Domestic Demand - Processing Enterprises' Inventory - As of June 25, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 4.567 million tons, a decrease of 0.54% [32]. 3.2.8. Domestic Inventory - Port Inventory - As of June 20, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 2.804 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 96,000 tons. The shipping volume of the four northern ports in that week was 338,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic - trade corn inventory was 1.133 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 3,000 tons, the same as the previous week; the imported sorghum was 468,000 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons from the previous week; and the imported barley was 293,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous week [36]. 3.3. Spread Tracking No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only the spread types such as corn basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - rice spread, and wheat - rice spread are mentioned [40][41].