银河期货粕类日报-20250701

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pulse Daily Report - July 1, 2025: Limited Supply Bullishness, Sideways Market Movement" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Performance Futures and Spot Market - Soybean Meal: Futures prices showed mixed movements, with different contracts having varying closing prices and changes. Spot basis prices decreased in most regions. For example, the 01 contract of soybean meal closed at 3003 with a gain of 4, and the basis in Tianjin remained at -40. [4] - Rapeseed Meal: Futures prices generally increased, and spot basis prices also showed some improvements. For instance, the 05 contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2320 with a gain of 6, and the basis in Guangdong increased by 16 to -116. [4] Spread Analysis - Monthly Spreads: Soybean meal monthly spreads had a mixed performance, with some spreads narrowing and others widening. Rapeseed meal monthly spreads showed a phased rebound, mainly influenced by the single - sided movement of the market. [4] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the spreads between soybean meal and sunflower meal, as well as rapeseed meal and sunflower meal, also changed. [4] Market Trends - US Soybeans: The US soybean market showed a sideways - down trend as the report lacked bullish drivers, and the market focused on the relatively loose supply - demand situation. [4] - Domestic Market: The domestic soybean meal market moved sideways with limited changes, while the rapeseed meal market rebounded. [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - US: The new - crop balance sheet of US soybeans improved due to the boost from biodiesel policies on crushing. As of the week ending June 15, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. The old - crop export inspection volume in the week ending June 12 was 21.58 tons, and the soybean crushing data in May was good, with the NOPA - caliber soybean crushing volume at 192.829 million bushels, a 1.37% increase from the previous month. [5] - Brazil: Brazilian farmers' selling progress was relatively slow and at a low level compared to historical periods. The recent selling progress continued to slow down, and price pressure emerged. The recent crushing volume decreased, and although the April crushing volume was good, the crushing profit was relatively low. It is expected that Brazil may further increase exports. [5] - Argentina: The domestic crushing volume may improve, and soybean exports may increase as the prices of terminal products have gradually stabilized. [5] Domestic Market - Soybean Meal: The domestic spot market remained relatively loose, with the oil refinery operating rate increasing, sufficient supply, and gradually accumulating inventory. As of June 27, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 248.78 tons, the operating rate was 69.93%, the soybean inventory was 665.87 tons, a 4.37% increase from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 69.16 tons, a 35.9% increase from the previous week. [6] - Rapeseed Meal: The demand for rapeseed meal gradually weakened, and although the supply was sufficient, the demand decline and high - level granular rapeseed meal still posed supply pressure. As of the week ending June 27, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil refineries was 4.3 tons, the operating rate was 11.46%, the rapeseed inventory was 18.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.1 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous week. [6] Group 4: Macro - analysis - The negotiation between China and the US in London was completed, but the market lacked clear information. There were still many uncertainties in international trade, but as the market gradually stabilized, macro - level disturbances decreased. Due to China's high demand for the US soybean market in the long - term, the price was not likely to drop significantly in the short term. [7] Group 5: Logical Analysis - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean meal market showed some pressure, but after the previous bearish factors were gradually reflected, the market rebounded. The overall bullish effect of the report was limited, and the recent upward trend slowed down. Although there were short - term bearish factors, the deep - decline space was limited as the price had dropped significantly. [7] - Rapeseed Meal: The rapeseed meal market moved sideways. The demand support was weak, and the upward space was limited due to the relatively high inventory level. [7] - Spreads: The monthly spreads of soybean meal had some support, and the monthly spreads of rapeseed meal were relatively strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was expected to widen in the future. [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Single - Side Trading: It is recommended to continue to make a small - scale long - position layout for the far - month contracts of soybean meal. [8] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM09 spread. [8] - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit of soybeans from different origins and shipping periods varied. For example, the crushing profit of soybeans from Argentina in October was - 72.23, showing a decrease compared to the previous day. [9]