银河期货航运日报-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Container shipping: The peak of the shipping season may be postponed, and the spot freight rate center may continue to rise. The trading strategy suggests a sideways trend for the single - side operation, with a focus on buying EC2512 at low prices, and a rolling operation for the 10 - 12 spread arbitrage [4][5][6]. - Dry bulk shipping: The large - vessel market is expected to be weak in the short term, while the medium - vessel market is expected to have a slightly stronger and fluctuating freight rate [17]. - Oil shipping: The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on the freight rate needs to be monitored [21]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis - On July 1, the EC2508 contract closed at 1904.9 points, up 8.15%. The final delivery settlement price of the EC2506 contract was 1919.34 points. The SCFI European line reported $2030/TEU on June 27, up 10.6% week - on - week [2][4]. - The spot freight rate center has gradually recovered, with different quotes from major shipping companies. Some shipping companies have raised their freight rates for the second half of July [5]. - In terms of demand, July is the peak shipping season, and the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs to be noted. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from July to September has increased compared to the previous schedule, and the market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Sideways. Consider a long - position strategy for EC2512 at low prices [6]. - Arbitrage: Rolling operation for the 10 - 12 spread arbitrage [8]. Industry News - The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Canada cancelled the digital service tax, and the EU and the US are conducting trade negotiations on tariffs [9]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis - The Baltic Dry Index dropped to 1489 points on Monday, the lowest since June 4. The Capesize ship freight index fell to 2111 points, the lowest since May 29, while the Panamax ship freight index rose to 1500 points, the highest since March 31 [13]. - As of June 30, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao decreased by 4.54% week - on - week, while that from Western Australia to Qingdao increased by 3.52% week - on - week. As of June 27, the freight rates of some coal and grain routes of Panamax ships had different changes [13][14]. - From June 23 to June 29, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 149.1 million tons week - on - week. The expected soybean export volume in Brazil in June is 1437 million tons [15][16]. Industry News - From June 23 to June 29, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 18.8 million tons. Guinea's bauxite exports in the first quarter increased by 39% year - on - year [18]. Oil Shipping Market Analysis - On June 30, the BDTI was 984, down 1.80% week - on - week and 12.22% year - on - year; the BCTI was 586, down 4.40% week - on - week and 28.54% year - on - year. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium [21]. Industry News - The average price of crude oil in this cycle first rose and then fell, and the prices of gasoline and diesel may continue to decline. It is expected that oil prices will rise in the third quarter and be under pressure in the fourth quarter. As of June 30, the crude oil arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries decreased by 17.54% week - on - week [22][23][24].