2025年下半年宏观及政策展望：向阳而生，于不确定性中追寻确定性

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate is expected to reach 5.3% in Q2 2025 and an annual growth rate of 5.2% for the year[4] - The dual-engine model of exports and consumption is expected to drive economic stability despite global uncertainties[4] Inflation and Prices - Core CPI is projected to rise moderately, with an annual average expected to reach 0.2%[5] - PPI is anticipated to stabilize around -2% for the year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industrial sector[5] Consumption Trends - Retail sales reached 41,326 billion yuan in May 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.4%[44] - Service-oriented consumption is becoming a focal point, driven by policies that enhance consumer spending[44] Investment Dynamics - Manufacturing and infrastructure investments are maintaining a growth rate of around 5%, while real estate investment remains weak[51] - Government policies are expected to support the stabilization of the real estate sector in the latter half of 2025[51] Export Performance - Exports are showing resilience, with a structural shift towards high-value products amid global uncertainties[59] - The share of low-value processing trade is declining, while high-value general trade is becoming the focus for future exports[62] Corporate Profits - Profits of large-scale industrial enterprises are expected to recover slightly, with private enterprises showing signs of increased momentum[65] - The overall profit growth is linked to the broader economic recovery and supportive policies[65] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to undergo structural adjustments, with a projected deficit rate of 4% for 2025 and increased special bond issuance[70] - Monetary policy will likely remain accommodative, with expectations for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[70]