钢矿月度报告：煤矿月末减产，黑色低位反弹-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - The spot steel prices fluctuated slightly, while the futures prices rebounded strongly. The supply from blast furnaces increased, but the output from electric arc furnaces decreased. The de - stocking speed of building materials slowed down, and the inventory of plates increased significantly. The demand for building materials weakened seasonally, and both domestic and external demand for plates declined month - on - month. The profit of steel mills expanded due to coke price cuts. The basis narrowed significantly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were closed at a profit. Overall, in June, the blast furnace operation continued to rise, hot metal production recovered slightly, and electric arc furnaces continued to cut production. Considering the pressure of declining demand for finished products in July and August, a medium - term short - selling strategy is maintained. Hold existing short positions and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. Iron Ore - The spot iron ore prices dropped significantly, while the futures prices rebounded strongly. Global shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival of resources at ports also increased. Hot metal production remained at a high level and is expected to maintain its resilience. Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories also declined. Shipping prices fluctuated downward. There is no trading space in the futures price spread, but attention can be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting iron ore 01 and going long on coking coal 01. In June, the supply was abundant, and demand was strong. Affected by the improvement in the coal fundamentals, the ore price rebounded strongly. However, considering the drag of off - season finished products, the probability of further price increases is low. A long - term short - selling strategy is maintained, and attention should be paid to opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - In June, the price of rebar was in a low - level oscillation, with the rebar 10 - contract futures price rising by 48 to 3009 and the hot - rolled coil futures price rising by 53 to 3129. In the spot market, the Shanghai rebar price was 3090 (down 40), and the hot - rolled coil price was 3200 (up 40). The hot - rolled coil was significantly stronger than rebar, mainly due to seasonal factors [8]. 1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production remained at a high level. As of June 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82% (unchanged from the previous week and up 0.71 percentage points year - on - year), the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83% (up 0.04 percentage points from the previous week and up 1.70 percentage points year - on - year), and the daily average hot metal output was 242.29 tons (up 0.11 tons from the previous week and up 2.85 tons year - on - year). The output of building materials decreased, with the long - process rebar output dropping by 80,000 tons. The electric arc furnace supply decreased significantly. As of the end of June, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.5% (down 0.04 percentage points from the previous month and up 3.13 percentage points year - on - year) [11][19]. 1.3 Demand - For building materials, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by nearly 300,000 tons month - on - month in June, and was 140,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The actual terminal demand, represented by the national concrete shipment, decreased by 10% month - on - month. The speculative demand decreased by 40,000 tons month - on - month, but there was a slight increase at the end of the month. For hot - rolled coils, the apparent demand was basically flat compared with May. Domestic demand was weak, with the off - season characteristics of the automobile industry being obvious and the demand for household appliances declining year - on - year. The external demand for plates was weak [25][28]. 1.4 Profit - The profit of blast furnace steelmaking continued to increase, mainly due to two rounds of coke price cuts. The profit of rebar in Tangshan expanded by 80, approaching 230, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was similar. The loss of electric arc furnace steelmaking expanded, mainly due to the relatively high price of scrap steel [32]. 1.5 Inventory - For rebar, as of June 30, the social inventory decreased by 310,000 tons month - on - month, and the mill inventory decreased by 8,000 tons. The de - stocking speed slowed down, but the inventory accumulation period had not yet arrived. For hot - rolled coils, the social inventory increased by 50,000 tons, and the mill inventory increased by 30,000 tons. It entered the seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory pressure was gradually emerging [35][39]. 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed significantly. The basis of rebar narrowed by 74 from the end of May to June 27, and the basis of hot - rolled coils narrowed by 5. The previously recommended reverse arbitrage positions were all closed at a profit, and there were no obvious short - term trading opportunities [42]. 1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - In June, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar remained inverted, and the reverse arbitrage position widened from - 6 to - 10. Considering the upcoming seasonal off - season, the inversion may deepen [45]. 1.8 Inter - product Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on the futures market widened slightly from 115 to 126, and the spot spread widened from 30 to 110. It is expected that there is limited room for further widening, and there are no obvious trend - trading opportunities [48]. Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - In June, the iron ore price rebounded from a low level. The futures price rose by 13.5 to 715.5, while the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port dropped by 28 to 707 yuan/ton [53]. 2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month. The weekly average global shipment in June was 3.4566 billion tons, an increase of 247 million tons compared with May and 72 million tons compared with June last year. The weekly average shipment from Australia was 2.0517 billion tons (up 199 million tons from May and 8 million tons from June last year), and that from Brazil was 820 million tons (up 27 million tons from May and 19 million tons from June last year). The arrival of iron ore at ports also increased. The weekly average arrival in June was 2.6547 billion tons, an increase of 170 million tons compared with May and 143 million tons compared with June last year [56][59][62]. 2.3 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the blast furnace operation rate oscillated and increased in June. It is expected that the average daily hot metal production in July will remain at around 2.4 million tons, and the daily consumption is expected to increase accordingly. In terms of speculative demand, the monthly average daily iron ore trading volume at ports decreased slightly from 940,000 tons last month to about 920,000 tons [65][68]. 2.4 Inventory - As of June 27, the total iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14.43356 billion tons, a decrease of 70 million tons compared with the previous month, 1.177 billion tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 1.113 billion tons compared with the same period last year. The steel mill inventory decreased. As of June 30, the steel mill ore powder inventory was 8.847 billion tons, a decrease of 53 million tons compared with the previous month's average [71][74]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping prices from Australia and Brazil to Qingdao first rose and then fell in June. Geopolitical factors affected the downstream restocking rhythm, and the freight rates decreased significantly after the conflict eased [77]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore futures narrowed from 35.5 to 25.5, and there was no obvious trading value. The basis of the 09 contract narrowed significantly from 53 to 8. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting iron ore 01 and going long on coking coal 01 [80][83].