银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250701

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that precious metals rebounded from a low level during the day, fulfilling the expectation that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about precious metals. The report suggests that despite short - term fluctuations in risk - aversion sentiment affecting the market, due to the substantial implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, it is expected that US inflation will rebound and the economy will slow down. Additionally, the approaching passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill may exacerbate US debt and deficit issues in the future. Therefore, the report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for precious metals. The report also highlights the importance of closely monitoring a series of US employment data, including non - farm payrolls, this week, as a continued cooling of the labor market may support the precious metal market [9]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: London gold is trading around $3340, and London silver is around $35.3. Driven by the overseas market, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.47% to 776.1 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 1.11% to 8810 yuan/kg [3]. - Dollar index: It dropped again and is trading around 96.6 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield declined slightly and is around 4.25% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is oscillating at a high level, trading around 7.16 [6]. Important Information - Trump administration's actions: Canada cancelled the digital service tax, and the White House will restart negotiations with Canada; EU officials will visit the US for trade talks on July 1st, and it is reported that the EU will accept Trump's general tariffs but seek exemptions for key industries; US Treasury Secretary believes there will be a wave of trade agreements signed in the last week before July 9th; Trump criticized the Fed again, and the Treasury Secretary hinted that Trump is considering appointing Powell's successor next year [7]. - US macro: The US Chicago PMI in June was 40.4, lower than the expected 43 and the lowest since January [7]. - Fed watch: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 79.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 20.2%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 5.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 75.9%. The market expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year [7]. Logical Analysis The precious metals rebounded from a low level, validating the view that there is no need for excessive pessimism. The report maintains that US inflation rebound and economic slowdown are the base - case scenarios, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill may deepen US debt and deficit problems. The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for precious metals and suggests focusing on US employment data this week [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average [10]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12].