Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's expectation of the 232 tariff has been postponed to September/October, and the price and spread of non-US regions will be significantly supported before the 232 tariff is implemented [5][7] - The supply of alumina is slightly in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range corresponding to the high-cost production capacity and cash cost of bauxite at $73 - $75 [13][16] - The aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to remain in a narrow range of increase or decrease in July, and the aluminum consumption off-season may not be too light [23] - The market trading atmosphere of cast aluminum alloy is relatively light, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum price [28] - The supply of zinc continues to increase, and the downstream enters the consumption off-season, so the zinc price may be under pressure to decline [37] - The supply of lead may be tightened, and the lead price may fluctuate strongly under the improvement of consumption [42] - The supply and demand of nickel are in a weak pattern, and the nickel price is under pressure in the medium term [49] - The stainless steel price is under pressure, and it is expected to decline in shock [57] - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is in the off-season, so the short-term market is strong [64] - The price of industrial silicon is affected by market rumors, and it is recommended to operate short-term according to the technical graph [70][72] - The polysilicon market is affected by industry and macro factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [76] - The lithium carbonate price may test the upper pressure, but the upward space is limited, and the idea of shorting on rallies remains in the medium term [81] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Review: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 80,640 yuan/ton, up 1.09%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced its position by 15,446 lots to 596,100 lots. The spot price increased in Shanghai and Guangdong but decreased in Tianjin [2] - Important Information: The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world from January to May 2025 reached 7.89 million units, accounting for 27.7% of the total vehicle sales [3] - Trading Strategy: Go long on the unilateral position; buy near and sell far for arbitrage; wait and see for options [8][9][10] Alumina - Market Review: The alumina 2509 contract decreased by 42 yuan to 2,945 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 4,532 lots to 429,700 lots. The spot price remained unchanged [11] - Related Information: The winning bid price of alumina in Xinjiang increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased [12] - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][17] Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract increased by 65 yuan/ton to 20,800 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 21,366 lots to 680,400 lots. The spot price in East China increased, while that in South China remained unchanged and that in Central China decreased [19] - Related Information: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, and the production of aluminum rods decreased [20] - Trading Strategy: Go long on the unilateral position; consider positive arbitrage opportunities when de-stocking; wait and see for options [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 50 yuan to 19,825 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 258 lots to 10,089 lots. The spot price remained unchanged [26] - Related Information: The expected sales volume of passenger cars in June increased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [26] - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum price, and consider arbitrage trading and spot-futures arbitrage under certain conditions; wait and see for options [30] Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract decreased by 0.8% to 22,255 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 6,105 lots to 268,800 lots. The spot price decreased, and the market trading improved [32] - Related Information: The smelter in Peru resumed production, and domestic zinc production projects were put into operation [33] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see on the unilateral position, and consider shorting on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38] Lead - Market Review: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract decreased by 0.26% to 17,100 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index increased by 1,148 lots to 82,600 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was limited [40] - Related Information: The social inventory of lead ingots increased, and Shanghai introduced subsidy policies for electric bicycles [41] - Trading Strategy: Hold profitable long positions and consider adding long positions on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [43] Nickel - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2508 decreased by 250 to 120,720 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 3,110 lots. The spot premium remained unchanged or decreased slightly [46] - Related Information: Indonesian nickel projects were launched, and China's economic prosperity level expanded [47][48] - Trading Strategy: Short on rallies on the unilateral position; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling call options after rallies [50][52] Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main contract SS2508 decreased by 110 to 12,560 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 4,789 lots. The spot price range was given [56] - Related Information: India launched an anti-dumping review on Chinese stainless steel pipes, and China continued to impose anti-dumping duties on imported stainless steel [57] - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to decline in shock; wait and see for arbitrage [58][59] Tin - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2508 closed at 269,840 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton or 0.63%. The spot price decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased slightly [61] - Related Information: The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world and different regions was given [62][63] - Trading Strategy: The short-term market is strong, and pay attention to the resumption rhythm of tin mines; wait and see for options [64][65] Industrial Silicon - Market Review: The main contract of industrial silicon futures decreased significantly, and the spot price range was given [67][68] - Related Information: A high-performance fluorine-chlorine new material project was planned to be built [69] - Trading Strategy: Operate short-term according to the technical graph; wait and see for options; participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [72][73] Polysilicon - Market Review: The main contract of polysilicon futures decreased significantly, and the spot price decreased [74] - Related Information: China revised the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, and the US solar industry subsidy was discussed [75] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see on the unilateral position; wait and see for options and arbitrage [77][79] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main 2509 contract increased by 100 to 62,780 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased. The spot price remained unchanged [80] - Related Information: Hainan Mining signed a lithium spodumene purchase agreement, and the central government emphasized market construction [81] - Trading Strategy: Short on rallies on the unilateral position; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out-of-the-money call options [82][83]
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250701
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-01 14:06