资产配置日报：美元怎么了？-20250701

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst performance in 52 years [1][2] - Factors contributing to the dollar's weakness include rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 96.2% probability of a rate cut in September [1][2] - The report notes that the US President's pressure on the Federal Reserve may weaken its independence, further impacting the dollar's value [2] Group 2 - The report indicates that the weakening dollar is providing support for international commodity prices, with gold and oil prices rising [3] - Copper prices have also shown strength, with LME copper futures rising by 13.61% since April 7, driven by declining global inventories [3] - The report mentions that the US tax and spending bill under Senate review could raise concerns about the sustainability of the dollar's value due to increased debt [2] Group 3 - In the domestic market, the stock market has shown mild recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% [4] - The bond market has seen a decline in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds, with yields dropping to 1.64% and 1.85% respectively [4] - The report discusses the adjustment in the issuance schedule of government bonds, indicating a potential improvement in the bond market's supply and demand dynamics [6][7]