Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-02 01:03Core Insights - The report highlights the long-term growth potential of Eastern Airlines Logistics, emphasizing its strategic positioning in the aviation logistics sector and the construction of a competitive moat through core resources [2][12][9] - The company has a diversified business model consisting of air express, ground comprehensive services, and integrated logistics solutions, which positions it well to benefit from the growth in cross-border e-commerce [12][3] - The report projects net profits for Eastern Airlines Logistics to reach CNY 21.20 billion, CNY 26.87 billion, and CNY 31.75 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3][12] Company Overview - Eastern Airlines Logistics, headquartered in Shanghai, is a modern comprehensive logistics service provider and was the first civil aviation mixed reform stock listed in 2021, with China Eastern Airlines Group as its controlling shareholder [2][12] - The company operates in three main segments: air express, ground comprehensive services, and integrated logistics solutions, with a focus on providing efficient and precise logistics services [12][3] Financial Performance - Since its listing, Eastern Airlines Logistics has distributed a total of CNY 2.726 billion in dividends, with a planned annual cash distribution of 30%-50% of net profit attributable to shareholders from 2024 to 2026 [3][12] - The report anticipates a stable growth trajectory for the air logistics market, despite short-term disruptions from trade policies, with a slight expansion in cargo aircraft scale expected [3][12] Investment Analysis - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for Eastern Airlines Logistics from 2025 to 2027 are 9.9x, 7.8x, and 6.6x, respectively, with expected dividend yields of 4.1%, 5.1%, and 6.1% based on a 40% payout ratio [3][12] - The report suggests that the company's assets in cargo aircraft and cargo stations provide a resource endowment advantage, with expectations for improved intercontinental cargo network capabilities and volume optimization [3][12]