天风证券晨会集萃-20250702

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant rebound in A-shares, with the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 4.3% and 5.22% respectively in June, driven by the second round of US-China negotiations and financial stability measures implemented on May 7 [3] - The report indicates that the central bank is expected to increase monetary easing, with a net withdrawal of 553.9 billion yuan in June, reflecting cross-quarter funding pressures [3] - In the commodities market, non-ferrous metals showed an overall upward trend, while crude oil rebounded significantly, and pork prices remained close to warning levels [3] Group 2 - The report tracks industry profitability, noting that the ROETTM for consumer electronics, white goods, and industrial metals is at a one-year high, while software, banking, and media sectors are at a low [5] - The report assesses industry sentiment, indicating high expectations for ROE growth in biopharmaceuticals, communication equipment, and power equipment, while coal mining and banking sectors show lower sentiment [5][31] - The report predicts a 6.0% year-on-year increase in industrial added value for June, with a PMI reading of 51.0 indicating expansion in manufacturing [6][33] Group 3 - The report discusses the strategic acquisition of Jiangsu Hengyi by Huada Technology, which is expected to enhance the company's performance and optimize its asset structure [14][36] - The company has secured numerous project designations from major automotive manufacturers, with expected total sales of 32 billion yuan from body parts and 31.5 billion yuan from battery box projects [14][37] - The report revises the revenue forecasts for Huada Technology for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 63.57 billion, 74.82 billion, and 88.29 billion yuan respectively, with a maintained "buy" rating [14][37] Group 4 - The report outlines the implications of including government bonds in the reserve requirement framework, suggesting that this could enhance liquidity but may not directly translate to increased credit supply [38][39] - It emphasizes the need for a significant reduction in the reserve requirement rate before implementing government bond inclusion to stimulate bank asset replacement [39][40] - The report indicates that the current banking environment is characterized by weak credit demand and a tendency towards "fiscalization" in asset allocation [39]