国元证券晨会纪要-20250702

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent passage of a comprehensive tax and spending bill by the U.S. Senate, which is now submitted to the House of Representatives [4] - It notes that the Federal Reserve, led by Powell, has begun to lower interest rates, contingent on the absence of tariffs from Trump [4] - The European Central Bank has decided to maintain a 2% inflation target [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1489.00, down 2.10% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 20202.89, down 0.82%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.91% to 44494.94 [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price increased by 0.81% to $67.28, and the London gold spot price rose by 1.07% to $3337.33 [5] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.13% to 96.65, while the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.16, down 0.05% [5] Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry is projected to face a talent shortage of one million by 2030, according to SEMI [4] - The Chinese manufacturing sector, as indicated by the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, returned to the expansion zone in June [4] - The leading photovoltaic glass manufacturers collectively reduced production by 30%, which experts believe will benefit the recovery of glass prices [4] - The film industry in China reported a box office revenue of 29.231 billion yuan in the first half of the year [4] - Internet companies in China achieved an internet business revenue of 773.5 billion yuan from January to May [4]