天然橡胶期货：天然橡胶向上驱动不足，短期内或保持偏弱震荡

Group 1: General Information - Research variety: Natural rubber [1] - Report date: June 30, 2025 [1] - Report period: Weekly [1] - Researcher: He Ning, Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - The upward driving force of natural rubber is insufficient, and it may remain weakly volatile in the short term [3] Group 3: Core View - The fundamentals of natural rubber do not have upward driving force, and the futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of factors such as Sino-US tariffs, upstream production, and midstream inventory on market sentiment and price trends [11][12] Group 4: Spot Market Analysis - In the domestic Yunnan production area, heavy rainfall last week affected the raw material procurement sentiment of concentrated latex, and the raw material supply was tight; in the Hainan production area, affected by the previous typhoon, the output speed was dragged down, with a total island collection of about 3,000 - 3,500 tons, still less than the same period in previous years. In the Thai production area, there was less disturbance last week [9][10] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of sample all-steel tire factories was 62.23%, and that of semi-steel tire factories was about 70.4%. The demand expectation was impacted by the macro tariff war, the order situation was average, and the capacity utilization rate of most tire factories fluctuated at a low level [10] - According to Longzhong Information statistics, the domestic natural rubber social inventory was about 1.286 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.8 million tons, an increase of 0.6%. The social inventory of dark rubber was about 780,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.3%. The social inventory of light rubber was about 506,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%. There was a slight inventory accumulation [10] Group 5: Futures-Spot Combination Analysis - Last week, the spot market price of Thai mixed natural rubber fluctuated with the market. The monthly spread of Thai mixed spot showed a weak BACK structure, and the futures-spot spread widened. The spread between the RU main contract and Thai mixed spot fluctuated between 100 - 200 yuan/ton; the spread between the NR main contract * 1.13 and Thai mixed spot fell to about -20 yuan/ton. According to the past spread rules, there is no good opportunity for non-standard positive set building in the current market. Recently, the number of NR warehouse receipts has gradually increased, and the premium of standard rubber spot over mixed rubber spot has shrunk to par. In the Yunnan production area, the impact of rainfall decreased last week, and the spread between standard No. 2 and Thai mixed widened to about 700 yuan/ton [11]