中泰国际每日晨讯-20250702

Market Overview - On June 30, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight pullback, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 212 points or 0.9% to close at 24,072 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.7% to 5,302 points. The total market turnover was HKD 242.2 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 5.22 billion through the Stock Connect [1] - Key blue-chip stocks in sectors such as banking, insurance, and the internet generally retreated, while consumer, telecommunications, and industrial blue-chip stocks rose. Notably, the biopharmaceutical, media entertainment, gold retail, and digital asset sectors performed well [1] Macro Dynamics - In the U.S., May PCE and core PCE rose by 2.3% and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively, showing a slight recovery from April. The actual year-on-year growth rate of personal disposable income for U.S. residents fell to 1.7%, while actual year-on-year growth in personal consumption expenditures slowed to 2.2%, the lowest since February of the previous year [2] - In China, new home sales continued to decline year-on-year, with a reported 2.99 million square meters sold in 30 major cities, down 24.7% year-on-year [2] Industry Dynamics - In the consumer sector, the stock price of Lao Pu Gold (6181 HK) rose by 15% after the expiration of a one-year lock-up period, driven by the opening of new stores in Shanghai and Singapore. The current valuation is approximately 40 times the 2025 earnings [3] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 0.8%, with the National Healthcare Security Administration recently issuing guidelines for the adjustment of the basic medical insurance directory and innovative drug directory for commercial health insurance [4] - The renewable energy sector saw a general decline in Hong Kong stocks, but the photovoltaic sector performed well, with companies like Xinyi Solar (968 HK) and Flat Glass Group (6865 HK) rising by 4.2% to 7.6% [5] Strategic Outlook - The report from Zhongtai International forecasts a bullish outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in 2025, driven by a technical bull market and favorable policies. The Hang Seng Index is expected to have a target price adjustment from 23,000 points to 24,500 points by the end of the year, with an anticipated increase in earnings per share of 8.5% and 8.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is likely to attract cross-market capital flows due to a weaker U.S. dollar and valuation opportunities, with a net inflow of HKD 708.1 billion from southbound funds from the beginning of the year to the end of June [8] - The report identifies ten key stocks for the second half of the year, including Tencent (700 HK), SMIC (981 HK), and China Ping An (2318 HK) [10]