Guoxin Securities·2025-07-02 01:52Macro and Strategy - The fiscal policy outlook for the second half of 2025 indicates a potential recovery in PPI and CPI, but nominal GDP growth may be dragged down by actual growth decline, with budget revenue growth expected to be between -1% and 0.1% [7][8] - The first half of 2025 saw a slight decline in fiscal revenue, but the drop was less severe compared to the previous year, with public expenditure growth at 4.2% [7][8] Industry and Company Social Services Industry - The travel chain industry shows resilient demand growth, with B-end business travel demand fluctuating with the macroeconomic cycle, while C-end tourism willingness remains strong [11] - The online travel agency (OTA) sector benefits from tourism recovery and upstream expansion, with leading companies maintaining stable profit margins [12] Automotive Industry - Xiaomi's Yu7 was officially launched on June 26, 2025, with three SKUs priced between 253,500 and 329,900 RMB, achieving over 240,000 orders within 18 hours of launch [14][15] - The Yu7's competitive features include a streamlined design, advanced battery technology, and a strong user base, positioning Xiaomi in the mid-to-high-end SUV market [16] Chemical Industry - The fluorochemical sector saw a 6.23% increase in the fluorochemical index in June 2025, outperforming other indices, with long-term price agreements for refrigerants expected to drive retail price growth in Q3 [18][28] - The supply-side constraints in the refrigerant market are expected to maintain a favorable pricing environment for key products like R32 and R410A [18] Agriculture Industry - The domestic beef price reached 63.73 RMB/kg, up 10.66% year-on-year, while fresh milk prices fell to 3.04 RMB/kg, indicating a significant divergence in meat and dairy pricing [20][21] - The beef and dairy sectors are anticipated to experience a price rebound, with dairy farming companies benefiting from the dual price increase in beef and milk [21] Overseas Market - The U.S. bond market is losing its value storage function, with gold expected to replace it, leading to a potential increase in gold prices to 3,500 USD/ounce [22][23] - The long-term bullish trend in the U.S. stock market is driven by monetary factors, with expectations of continued capital inflow despite economic uncertainties [23][24] Company Specifics - Xiaogong City (600415.SH) reported a projected net profit of 1.63-1.7 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, driven by new market recruitment and cross-border payment business growth [26][27] - Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH) saw its major shareholder complete a share buyback, indicating confidence in the company's long-term performance, with expectations of continued price increases in refrigerants [28]