东吴证券晨会纪要-20250702

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that internal demand continues to show structural differentiation while external demand remains stable overall, with monetary policy focusing on improving the efficiency of fund utilization [1][7] - The ECI supply index is at 50.12%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.94%, up 0.01 percentage points [7] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q2 has been significantly revised upward due to the end of "import grabbing" behavior among wholesalers [1][8] Fixed Income - The report compares the holding structures and strategies of domestic and overseas innovation bonds, highlighting that domestic institutional investors prioritize liquidity, while overseas investors adopt more aggressive strategies [2][11] - U.S. institutional investors favor duration strategies, while Japanese investors prioritize both duration and coupon strategies, and European investors show a balanced approach across strategies [11][12] Company Analysis China Gas (00384.HK) - For the fiscal year 2024/25, the company reported total revenue of HKD 80.25 billion, a decrease of 1.96% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.09% to HKD 3.252 billion [4][14] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for FY2026-FY2027, with net profit estimates for FY2028 at HKD 3.477 billion, HKD 3.726 billion, and HKD 3.997 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, 7.2%, and 7.3% respectively [4][14] Small Commodity City (600415) - The company expects a net profit of RMB 1.63 to 1.70 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.6% to 17.4% [5][15] - The strong performance in import and export trade in Yiwu is a key driver for the company's market growth, with a reported 23.7% year-on-year increase in total import and export value [15] Nengke Technology (603859) - The company is positioned as a leader in industrial software and AI, with projected revenue growth of 21%, 20%, and 17% for 2025 to 2027, respectively [6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is expected to grow by 32%, 25%, and 24%, with a "buy" rating assigned [6]