商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250702

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Continuing to surge [2]. - Copper: Strong spot prices support the price [2]. - Zinc: The fundamentals are under pressure [2]. - Lead: Seasonal peak expectations support the price [2]. - Tin: The macro - environment drives the price up [2]. - Nickel: The support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting end limits the upside potential [2]. - Stainless steel: Inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 773.90 with a daily increase of 1.10%, and the night - session closing price was 776.10 with a night - session increase of 1.47%. Comex Gold 2508 closed at 3315.00 with a 0.88% increase. Trading volumes of some contracts decreased compared to the previous day [5]. - ETF and Inventory: SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 2 to 952.53. Shanghai Gold's inventory increased by 216 to 18,453 kg, while Comex Gold's inventory (in ounces) decreased by 135 [5]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a weak bearish trend [8]. Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8810 with a 0.55% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8810.00 with a 1.11% increase. Trading volumes of some contracts decreased compared to the previous day [5]. - ETF and Inventory: SLV Silver ETF's holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 42 to 14,869.01. Shanghai Silver's inventory increased by 39088 to 1,338,844 kg, and Comex Silver's inventory (in ounces) increased by 604,393 [5]. - Trend Intensity: 1, indicating a weak bullish trend [8]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 80,640 with a 0.96% increase, and the night - session closing price was 80390 with a - 0.31% change. Trading volumes of some contracts increased compared to the previous day [10]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai Copper's inventory decreased by 1,078 to 24,773 tons, and LME Copper's inventory increased by 625 to 91,250 tons. Some spreads changed compared to the previous day [10]. - News: The US 6 - month ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract. China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Some mining and smelting projects have new developments [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: 1, indicating a weak bullish trend [12]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22255 with a - 1.07% change. Trading volumes of some contracts changed compared to the previous day [13]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai Zinc's inventory decreased by 253 to 6824 tons, and LME Zinc's inventory decreased by 2575 to 114900 tons. Some spreads and premiums changed [13]. - News: The 6000t/d lead - zinc mine expansion project in Guangxi started [14]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a weak bearish trend [14]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17100 with a - 0.58% change. Trading volumes of some contracts decreased compared to the previous day [16]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai Lead's inventory increased by 101 to 46389 tons, and LME Lead's inventory decreased by 1850 to 270075 tons. Some spreads and import profits changed [16]. - News: The 6000t/d lead - zinc mine expansion project in Guangxi started [17]. - Trend Intensity: 1, indicating a weak bullish trend [17]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 269,840 with a 0.65% increase, and the night - session closing price was 269840 with a 0.63% increase. Trading volumes of some contracts decreased compared to the previous day [20]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai Tin's inventory increased by 16 to 6,766 tons, and LME Tin's inventory increased by 45 to 2,220 tons. Some spot prices and spreads changed [20]. - News: Multiple macro - level news events, such as EU - US tariff negotiations and China's PMI data [21]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,720, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 12,560. Trading volumes of both decreased compared to the previous day [23]. - Industry Chain Data: Various prices in the nickel and stainless - steel industry chain, such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate, and stainless - steel products, changed compared to different time points [23]. - News: There were developments in nickel - related projects in Canada, Indonesia, including production start - ups, resumptions, and potential export restrictions [23][24][25]. - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].