Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamental improvement of palm oil production areas is limited, and the market is bottoming out through fluctuations; the hype about the weather of US soybeans is insufficient, and there is a lack of driving forces for soybean oil [1] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: The closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 8,336 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price remained unchanged. The closing price of soybean oil futures (day session) was 7,972 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.15%, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.28%. The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (day session) was 9,477 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.66%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.08%. The Malaysian palm oil futures closing price was 3,970 ringgit/ton with a daily decrease of 0.43%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.55%. The CBOT soybean oil futures closing price was 53.65 cents/pound with a daily increase of 1.71% [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of palm oil futures decreased by 84,471 lots to 479,503 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3,330 lots to 428,231 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil futures decreased by 78,008 lots to 255,064 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,148 lots to 550,375 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil futures decreased by 57,924 lots to 297,121 lots, and the open interest increased by 10,063 lots to 309,340 lots [1] - Spot Prices: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 30 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,190 yuan/ton with no change. The spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,500 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 50 yuan. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,005 US dollars/ton with no change [1] - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 94 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 218 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 23 yuan/ton [1] - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 1,141 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 364 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil futures was - 24 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil futures was 42 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil futures was 49 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - Palm Oil in Malaysia: From June 1 - 30, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 0.23% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 0.65% month - on - month [2] - Palm Oil in Indonesia: In May 2025, Indonesia's exports of crude and refined palm oil reached 1.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53%, and the export value increased by nearly 71% to 1.85 billion US dollars. In the first five months of this year, the cumulative exports reached 8.3 million tons, higher than 8.01 million tons in the same period last year [5] - US Oilseed Processing: In May 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons; the soybean oil output was 2.42 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 7%. The rapeseed crushing volume was 107,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53,182 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 35,629 tons; the rapeseed oil output was 84 million pounds, a month - on - month decrease of 35% and a year - on - year decrease of 28%. The output of US corn distillers dried grains (DDGS) was 1.776 million tons, lower than 2.003 million tons in the same period last year [5] - South American Soybean Production and Exports: StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 168.75 million tons. Anec expected Brazil's soybean exports in June to reach 13.93 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 1.67 million tons. Argentina's agricultural exports in June increased by 87% year - on - year, with export revenues reaching 3.7 billion US dollars [6] - EU Oilseed Imports: As of June 29, 2025, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.79 million tons, lower than 3.49 million tons in the same period last year; soybean imports were 14.27 million tons, higher than 13.2 million tons in the same period last year; soybean meal imports were 19.25 million tons, higher than 15.28 million tons in the same period last year; rapeseed imports were 7.33 million tons, higher than 5.68 million tons in the same period last year [6] - Indian Oilseed Planting: As of June 27, 2025, the overall planting area of India's summer - sown and autumn - harvested crops increased by 11.3% year - on - year. The planting areas of pulses and rice increased significantly by 37.2% and 47.3% respectively, and the planting areas of oilseeds such as soybeans and peanuts also increased [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]
棕榈油：产地基本面改善有限，震荡磨底，豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-02 02:42