烧碱：现货降价未结束，但需关注液氯的影响

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price decline of caustic soda is not over yet, but due to the impact of liquid chlorine, the cost has increased, and the far - month valuation is repaired, but the continuous rebound space may be limited. The later focus should be on the impact of liquid chlorine on the supply of caustic soda. If there is a substantial production cut or load reduction, it can be treated bullishly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda is 2358, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong is 770, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2406, and the basis is 48 [1]. - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 770 yuan/ton today, a 1.28% decrease from the previous period. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major downstream enterprises decreased by 15 to 735, and some enterprises followed the price cut. Currently, the factory inventories of most enterprises are at a low level, which provides short - term support for the market [1]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda is still falling, mainly because Shandong alumina enterprises continue to lower their purchase prices. When there is an expectation of spot price decline, the inventory - building demand of downstream and traders slows down significantly, intensifying the negative market feedback. The pressure on near - month long - position holders to take delivery has increased, and the logic of near - month premium repair is difficult to support the market [2]. - Recently, the short - selling drive for caustic soda has slowed down significantly because the price decline of liquid chlorine has exceeded expectations, and the possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda due to liquid chlorine disturbances in the future has increased [2]. - In terms of fundamentals, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased significantly compared with June. The maintenance in July is mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and the previously shut - down units in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high [2]. - On the demand side, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina's caustic soda inventory is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices is strong. On the cost side, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].