中国期货每日简报-20250702

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 1, 2025, CGB futures rose; commodities were differentiated, with silicon metal and poly-silicon falling, and the SCFIS(Europe) rising by nearly 8%. The top three gainers were the SCFIS(Europe), gold, and TSR 20, while the top three decliners were silicon metal, glass, and coking coal [4][11][13]. - The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 50.4, returning to the expansion range [37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 1, 2025, CGB futures increased. Among commodities, silicon metal and poly - silicon declined, and the SCFIS(Europe) rose by nearly 8%. The SCFIS(Europe) rose 7.8% with a 3.2% month - on - month increase in position; gold rose 1.5% with a 7.5% month - on - month increase in position; TSR 20 rose 1.2% with a 4.5% month - on - month decrease in position. Silicon metal fell 4.3% with a 1.5% month - on - month increase in position; glass fell 3.7% with a 10.4% month - on - month increase in position; coking coal fell 3.3% with a 0.3% month - on - month decrease in position [11][12][13]. 1.2 Daily Rise - SCFIS(Europe): On July 1, it increased by 7.8% to 1904.9 points. EC2508 may trade between 1600 - 1900 points. Trump believes no need to extend the July 9 tariff deadline, and the US Treasury Secretary said it may be difficult to complete all negotiations. China's manufacturing PMI has rebounded slightly. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in river water levels have led to supply chain congestion at European ports. Some shipping companies reported a decrease in stockpiling, and there is a possibility of price hikes in the second half of July [17][18][19]. - Gold: On July 1, it rose 1.5% to 776.1 yuan/gram. Recent upward movement in risk appetite has pressured gold prices. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have rebounded slightly, it's hard to drive the gold market significantly. Focus on labor market data and the progress after the end of the first tariff easement period this week [25][26][27]. - Copper: On July 1, it increased by 1.1% to 80640 yuan/ton. Supply constraints and low inventories support copper prices, which may fluctuate at a high level in the short term. DXY has been declining, boosting copper prices. Copper concentrate processing fees have dropped below - $40, and raw material supply is tight. Some smelters at home and abroad have cut production. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, downstream restocking willingness has weakened, but inventories are still low [29][30][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governing the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises, guiding enterprises to improve product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. It also addressed standardizing government procurement and bidding, local investment promotion, and promoting the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [37]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning to the expansion range [37].