棉花：缺乏有效驱，期价仍是震荡走势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price lacks effective drivers and remains in a volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2509 closed at 13,745 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04%, and the night - session price was 13,775 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,045 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and the night - session price was 20,050 yuan/ton; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.96 cents/pound with a - 0.12% decrease. The trading volume of CF2509 was 256,050 lots, a decrease of 200,500 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 854,338 lots, a decrease of 9,073 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,335 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,023 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,211, a decrease of 62 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 301 with no change; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, with no change, and the effective forecast was 6, a decrease of 1 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,204 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day; the 3128B index was 15,212 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day; the international cotton index M was 75.58 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.25 cents or - 1.63% from the previous day; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,420 yuan/ton with no change; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,912 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01% from the previous day [1] - Spread Data: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The spot trading of cotton has changed little, mostly for the rigid - demand procurement of textile enterprises, and the overall basis has remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is mostly at CF09 + 1300 - 1600, and the overall offers are few, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the basis of 2024/25 Hami machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 is mostly at CF09 + 1000 and above, for self - pick - up in the inland; the 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was traded at CF09 + 950 - 1050, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The market of pure - cotton yarn has shown little change recently, and the yarn prices have remained stable. The cash - flow losses of inland textile enterprises exceed 500 yuan/ton, the downstream demand is sluggish, and textile enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remains cold. Currently, manufacturers are mostly looking forward to the start of autumn orders in July. The domestic sales are light, with few inquiries. Some weaving factories reported that they have been on business trips to visit customers recently but have received few orders. Individual weaving factories reported that they have no orders and face great operating pressure in July, considering further production cuts [2] - US Cotton: The ICE cotton futures fell slightly yesterday. The higher - than - expected US cotton planting area and the increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton put pressure on ICE cotton, but external factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in crude oil prices provided support for ICE cotton [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]