Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in July, with over 50% expectation of a rate cut in September. The baseline assumption is a 25BP rate cut in Q4, but there are uncertainties in tariff policies, US Treasuries, and geopolitics [2]. - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, with Saudi Arabia's exports increasing by 441,000 barrels per day in June. The oil market may return to supply - demand fundamentals, and short - term attention should be paid to OPEC policies and reciprocal tariffs [2]. - The oil price is in a low - level oscillation pattern. Traders are advised to short at high prices but wait for the right opportunity. If there is a short - term downward break, short - term follow - up can be considered, with stop - loss in mind [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil Futures - On July 1st, Sc was at 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan (0.54%) from the previous day and down 19.20 yuan (-3.70%) from last week. WTI was at $65.53/barrel, up $0.56 (0.86%) from the previous day and up $0.52 (0.80%) from last week. Brent was at $67.28/barrel, up $0.65 (0.98%) from the previous day and down $0.54 (-0.80%) from last week [2]. Inner - Outer Spreads - Sc - WTI was at $4.28/barrel, down $0.13 (-2.99%) from the previous day and down $3.08 (-41.84%) from last week. Sc - Brent was at $2.53/barrel, down $0.22 (-8.06%) from the previous day and down $2.02 (-44.37%) from last week. Brent - WTI was at $1.75/barrel, down $1.01 (-36.48%) from the previous day and down $2.80 (-61.57%) from last week [2]. Sc Month - Spreads - Sc_C1 - C2 was at 6.60 yuan/barrel, up 6.70 yuan (6700.00%) from the previous day and up 4.30 yuan (186.96%) from last week. Sc_C1 - C6 was at 22.10 yuan/barrel, up 4.00 yuan (22.10%) from the previous day and down 13.40 yuan (-37.75%) from last week. Sc_C1 - C13 was at 25.50 yuan/barrel, up 1.40 yuan (5.81%) from the previous day and down 28.40 yuan (-52.69%) from last week [2]. Crude Oil Spot - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $68.35/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.36 (0.53%) from last week. Brent DTD was at $68.17/barrel, with no change from the previous day and down $1.05 (-1.52%) from last week. Oman was at $69.20/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $1.40 (2.06%) from last week. Dubai was at $68.75/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.95 (1.40%) from last week. ESPO was at $62.76/barrel, with no change from the previous day and up $0.49 (0.79%) from last week [2]. Premiums and Discounts - OPEC's basket of premiums and discounts was at $1.07/barrel, down $0.47 (-30.52%) from the previous day and up $0.14 (15.05%) from last week. Brent DTD premiums and discounts was at $0.89/barrel, down $1.68 (-65.37%) from the previous day and down $1.38 (-281.63%) from last week. Oman premiums and discounts was at $1.92/barrel, up $2.02 (2020.00%) from the previous day and down $3.94 (-195.05%) from last week. Dubai premiums and discounts was at $1.47/barrel, up $2.80 (210.53%) from the previous day and down $1.31 (-47.12%) from last week. ESPO premiums and discounts was at -$4.52/barrel, down $2.89 (-177.30%) from the previous day and down $18.82 (-131.60%) from last week [2]. Product Spot - Diesel in East China was at 7,036.45 yuan/ton, down 56.27 yuan (-0.79%) from the previous day and down 380.55 yuan (-5.13%) from last week. Gasoline in East China was at 8,078.18 yuan/ton, down 66.18 yuan (-0.81%) from the previous day and down 384.27 yuan (-4.54%) from last week [2]. Spread References - Diesel (East China)/Sc was 14.089817, down 0.19 (-1.33%) from the previous day and down 0.21 (-1.48%) from last week. Gasoline (East China)/Sc was 16.175775, down 0.22 (-1.35%) from the previous day and down 0.14 (-0.87%) from last week. Diesel - gasoline (East China) was -1,041.73 yuan/ton, up 9.91 yuan (-0.94%) from the previous day and up 3.73 yuan (-0.36%) from last week [2]. Sc Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts were 5.911 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and up 1.882 million barrels (46.71%) from last week. The strategic petroleum reserve was 402.53 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and up 0.24 million barrels (0.06%) from last week [2]. EIA US (Weekly) - Commercial crude oil was 415.11 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 5.84 million barrels (-1.39%) from last week. Cushing crude oil was 22.22 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 0.46 million barrels (-2.05%) from last week. Gasoline was 227.94 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 2.08 million barrels (-0.90%) from last week. Distillates were 105.33 million barrels, with no change from the previous day and down 4.07 million barrels (-3.72%) from last week [2]. CFTC Positions (Weekly) - Non - commercial net positions were 233,000 contracts, with no change from the previous day and up 19,000 contracts (0.83%) from last week. Commercial net positions were -270,500 contracts, with no change from the previous day and down 115,000 contracts (4.44%) from last week. Non - reported net positions were 37,600 contracts, with no change from the previous day and up 9,600 contracts (34.17%) from last week [2]. Industry News - Trump said Israel agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire with Hamas, and he will meet Netanyahu on the 7th to discuss the Gaza situation and the Iranian nuclear issue [3]. - Iran was reported to have loaded mines on ships in the Persian Gulf, preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Houthi rebels attacked Israeli airports and cities with missiles and drones on July 1st [4]. - US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels in the week ending June 28th, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.417 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 1.92 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 3.458 million barrels [5]. - Mexico's oil production is dropping to the level of the late 1970s, and its June exports dropped to a record low of 529,000 barrels per day [5]. - Israel's military action assessment report showed that its multi - layer air defense system intercepted 86% of Iranian ballistic missiles and over 99% of drones [6]. - Trump said he won't extend the trade negotiation deadline on July 9th and is skeptical about reaching an agreement with Japan, and may impose higher tariffs on Japanese imports [6]. - Brazil's oil production in May reached 3.679 million barrels per day, a 10.9% year - on - year increase, and natural gas production was 172.3 million cubic meters, an 18.3% year - on - year increase [7]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 441,000 barrels per day in June to 6.36 million barrels per day, the highest in over a year [7]. - The US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill, which plans to cut taxes by $4 trillion and spending by at least $1.5 trillion in the next 10 years, and raise the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion [9].
山金期货原油日报-20250702
Shan Jin Qi Huo·2025-07-02 03:35