铝锭：下游开工率承压，警惕对价格负反馈，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The prices of finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and the prices of aluminum ingots are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [2][3][4] - For finished products, it is necessary to focus on macro - policies and downstream demand; for aluminum ingots, it is necessary to focus on macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January, resuming around the 11th - 16th of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, others plan to stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, down 40.3% month - on - month and up 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished product prices continued to decline, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity moved down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - On July 1, the US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill, and the House of Representatives will debate and vote on it on July 2. The market is watching US employment data to judge the Fed's policy direction [2] - As of June 30, the theoretical profit of the alumina industry was 248 yuan/ton, but the capacity using imported ore in Shanxi and Henan was in a loss state, and cost support is expected to gradually emerge. Alumina enterprise inventory increased by 81,000 tons [3] - In June, the aluminum processing PMI was 40.1%, below the boom - bust line, down 9.7 percentage points month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year [3] - As of June 30, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 468,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from last Thursday and 4,000 tons from last Monday. Due to increased supply in late June and high prices suppressing consumption, inventory accumulation is expected to continue in early July [3] - Overseas macro instability persists. Low inventory supports aluminum prices, but there are signs of inventory accumulation. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in ore prices, and the off - season demand limits the upside space [4]