申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250702

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of gold and silver rebounded. The approaching tariff suspension deadline and the progress of the "Big and Beautiful" bill have made the market uneasy, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. Recent statements from Fed officials suggest a continued wait - and - see stance, with some indicating a possible rate cut as early as July under conditions such as lower inflation and clearer trade policies. The "Big and Beautiful" bill raises expectations of fiscal deficits. US data shows that the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, but trade negotiations have limited progress. As the policy framework is modified, the market may pave the way for future easing. Once the tariff policy becomes clear, the expectation of rate cuts will be further clarified. Gold has long - term drivers but shows hesitation in rising due to high prices. With the approaching July tariff suspension deadline, be vigilant about the uncertainty of Trump's policies and potential hype about tariff resurgence [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 774.50 and 779.08 respectively, with increases of 0.60 (0.08%) and 1.18 (0.15%). The current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 8763.00 and 8805.00 respectively, with decreases of 47.00 ( - 0.53%) and 45.00 ( - 0.51%) [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The open interest of沪金2508 and沪金2512 is 110096 and 81240 respectively, and the trading volume is 83291 and 18408 respectively. The open interest of沪银2508 and沪银2512 is 264724 and 174356 respectively, and the trading volume is 342536 and 40561 respectively [2] - Spot Premium/Discount: The spot premium/discount of沪金2508 and沪金2512 is - 2.46 and - 7.04 respectively, and that of沪银2508 and沪银2512 is 42.00 and 0.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 772.04 and 768.79 respectively, with increases of 7.89 (1.03%) and 8.25 (1.08%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 8805.00, with an increase of 77.00 (0.88%), and the price of London Silver was 36.01, with a decrease of 0.08 ( - 0.21%) [2] - Price Ratios: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 4.58, 42, 87.68, 7.20, and 7.60 respectively [2] Inventory - Inventory Changes: The current values of上期所黄金库存,上期所白银库存, COMEX黄金库存, and COMEX白银库存 are 18,453 kg, 1,338,844 kg, 37,048,200 ounces, and 501,210,189 ounces respectively. Compared with the previous values,上期所黄金库存 increased by 216.00 kg,上期所白银库存 increased by 39,088.00 kg, and COMEX白银库存 increased by 1,515,437 ounces [2] Related Markets - Indices and Yields: The current values of the US dollar index, Standard & Poor's index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate are 96.6451, 6198.01, 4.26%, 67.28, and 7.1614 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the US dollar index decreased by 0.13%, the Standard & Poor's index decreased by 0.11%, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.47%, the Brent crude oil price increased by 0.01%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased by 0.05% [2] Derivatives - ETF and CFTC Positions: The current positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are 44315 tons, both increasing by 1.00 ton compared with the previous values. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with an increase of 481 in silver and a decrease of 1451 in gold compared with the previous values [2] News and Events - US Politics and Policies: The US Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will be sent to the House of Representatives. Trump is confident that the tax bill will pass in the House. Trump said he will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline, may not reach an agreement with Japan by then, and Japan may face 30% or 35% tariffs. There are two or three candidates for the Fed chair [3] - Central Bank Statements: Fed Chair Powell said that without Trump's tariff policies, the Fed would adopt looser monetary policies. He did not rule out a rate cut in July, which depends on data, and most Fed members expect a rate cut later this year. ECB President Lagarde said the eurozone's June inflation reached the 2% target, the rate - cut cycle is approaching the end, and future policies will depend on data [3] - Trade Negotiations: The EU and the US are in the final stage of trade agreement negotiations. The EU has agreed in principle to a 10% general tariff proposed by the US but requires the US to make equivalent concessions in four key areas. The White House economic advisor is optimistic about reaching an agreement with the EU [3] - US Economic Data: The US June ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49, higher than the expected 48.8 but still in the contraction range for four consecutive months. New orders decreased for five consecutive months, and the price - paid index was close to the highest level since June 2022, indicating a slight acceleration of inflation. US job openings in May increased from 7.4 million in April to 7.769 million, far exceeding the expected 7.3 million, and the number of layoffs decreased [4]