Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating, with a long - term view of oscillating on the downside [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Rebounding [2] - Glass: Oscillating on the downside [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Uptrending [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Uptrending [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillating [4] - Silver: High - level oscillating [4] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean Oil: High - level oscillating [6] - Palm Oil: High - level oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Oil: High - level oscillating [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating on the downside [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating on the downside [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating on the downside [6][8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating on the downside [6] - Live Pigs: Rebounding [8] - Rubber: Rebounding [11] - PX: On the sidelines [11] - PTA: Try shorting on rallies [11] - MEG: Try shorting on rallies [11] - PR: On the sidelines [11] - PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The overall iron ore market shows a pattern of gradually increasing supply, relatively low demand, and port inventories entering the accumulation phase, remaining in an oversupplied situation [2] - The coking coal and coke market may experience a weak adjustment, with attention paid to the trends of hot metal and the supply side of coking coal and coke [2] - The supply of rolled steel and rebar is expected to contract, and the overall demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance, with a pattern of high in the front and low in the back [2] - The glass market lacks substantial positive factors, and the price is under pressure due to weak reality [2] - The stock index market shows different trends, and with the improvement of economic data, it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4] - The bond market is in a state of narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4] - The gold market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4] - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly due to cost and demand factors [6] - The log market has relatively balanced supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the impact of the first log futures delivery [6] - The oil and fat market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6] - The meal market is expected to oscillate on the downside, and attention should be paid to North American weather, soybean arrivals, and Sino - US trade negotiations [6] - The live pig market is expected to continue to rise, with the southern market potentially leading the next round of price increases [8] - The rubber market is in a state of supply - demand adjustment, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [11] - The polyester market shows different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [11] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron Ore: Recently, the spot trading of iron ore has been weak, and the basis has continued to narrow. The global iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume have both declined but are still at a high level in recent years. There is an expectation of an increase in shipments later, and the arrival pressure may increase. During the off - season in the industry, the production of five major steel products has increased, and the hot metal production has remained high. The port inventory of iron ore is still being depleted, but under the speculation of production - reduction policies, the demand for iron ore is expected to decrease. In the long term, the supply of iron ore is gradually increasing, the demand is relatively low, and the port inventory is entering the accumulation phase [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: There are rumors that some coking enterprises and coal mines may resume production, and the coking coal and coke market may experience a weak adjustment. The steel mills have suppressed the price of coke, and the fourth round of price cuts has been implemented. The downstream demand has weakened, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises has increased. Under the speculation of production - reduction policies, the demand for hot metal is expected to decrease [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Under the speculation of production - reduction policies, the supply of finished steel is expected to contract, and the market has rebounded. In the off - season, the demand for building materials has weakened, the production of five major steel products has continued to rise, the total steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise, and the apparent demand has slightly declined. The overall demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance [2] - Glass: There is no substantial positive factor in the glass market, and the speculative sentiment in the Shahe area has been reignited. The production line has both ignition and water - release situations. To meet the seasonal inventory depletion of glass, the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to below 154,000 tons. During the rainy season, the demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years. In the long term, the demand for glass is difficult to increase significantly [2] Financial Industry - Stock Index Futures/Options: The previous trading day showed different trends for different stock indices. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors were different. The central government emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market and the high - quality development of the marine economy. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June rebounded, indicating the resilience of the economy, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds remained flat, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations. The market interest rate was in a state of consolidation, and the bond market showed a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4] - Precious Metals: The gold market is affected by multiple factors such as the central bank's gold - buying behavior, interest rate policies, tariff policies, and geopolitical risks. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillation. The silver market is also affected by similar factors, and attention should be paid to the release of inflation data [4] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp has continued to be weak, and the cost support has weakened. The profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the pulp price will oscillate weakly [6] - Logs: The daily shipment volume of logs at the port has increased, and the first log futures delivery has driven the activity of the spot market. The arrival volume is expected to increase, and the supply pressure has rebounded. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the impact of the first log futures delivery on the price [6] Oil, Fat, and Feed Industry - Oils and Fats: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil in May were higher than expected, and the inventory has increased for three consecutive months. The export of palm oil is expected to remain strong, and the demand for soybean oil and its upstream raw materials is expected to increase. However, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the oil and fat market will oscillate at a high level [6] - Meals: The soybean planting area in the United States in 2025 is slightly lower than the intention in March, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has improved. The South American soybean harvest is abundant, and the domestic soybean arrival volume is expected to be high. It is expected that the meal market will oscillate on the downside [6] Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: Currently, the pig - raising end has a strong sentiment of holding back prices, and the pig price in the north is expected to continue to rise. The southern market is expected to experience a supply shortage in July and may lead the next round of price increases. The average trading weight of live pigs has decreased, and the slaughter volume has increased. It is expected that the pig price will continue to rise [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: On the supply side, the natural rubber production areas are affected by rainfall, and the raw material supply is tight. On the demand side, the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has shown a structural rebound, but it is still restricted by market demand. The inventory situation is complex, and it is expected that the rubber price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [11] - Polyester Products: Different polyester products have different trends. PX is expected to follow the oil price, PTA is recommended to try shorting on rallies, MEG is also recommended to try shorting on rallies, PR may oscillate weakly, and PF is expected to oscillate and consolidate [11]
新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-2）-20250702
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-07-02 03:40