Guoxin Securities·2025-07-02 03:51Core Views - Industrial metals are experiencing high apparent demand growth, with copper and aluminum showing over 5% growth in the first half of the year, driven by electricity, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles, while real estate and export demand are declining [5][11] - The supply side remains orderly and controllable, leading to a continuous upward shift in price levels, with current inventories at historical lows and significant risks of short squeezes [5][11] - Mining companies are seeing increasing profits, and valuations remain low despite the market's divergence [5][11] Industrial Metals Analysis - The apparent demand for copper and aluminum is growing, with a 5% increase in demand in the first half of the year, driven by sectors like electricity and new energy vehicles, while real estate and export demand are declining [11] - The geopolitical factors and global supply-demand imbalance have led to historically low inventories, creating a risk of price spikes [11] - The report suggests that mining companies are benefiting from rising profits and low valuations, with expectations of continued price increases as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [5][12] Precious Metals Outlook - Gold prices have reached new highs and are expected to remain strong throughout the year, driven by rising geopolitical risks, concerns over the dollar's credibility, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6] - The long-term outlook for gold prices is positive, with expectations of continued central bank purchases due to declining dollar credibility and the trend of de-globalization [6] Energy Metals Insights - Lithium prices are currently at a low point, with expectations of a prolonged bottoming phase, while cobalt prices are expected to rebound due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7] - Nickel prices are anticipated to receive support from cost factors, with domestic nickel production costs estimated at around $15,000 per ton [7] Minor Metals Analysis - The report highlights the strategic importance of tungsten, with prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and increased demand [9] - Uranium demand is projected to increase significantly as nuclear power generation expands, with expectations of rising prices due to limited supply [9] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a selection of companies in the metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Northern Rare Earth Group, among others, as potential investment opportunities [9]