高盛：变革中的中国_ 聚焦产能周期 - 延迟的转折点

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for most industries, suggesting that many are not at the bottom of their cycles and face potential risks in the future [28][37]. Core Insights - The current state of excess capacity in the Chinese manufacturing sector remains largely unchanged, with five out of seven key industries still exhibiting overcapacity relative to global demand [17][19]. - A significant stimulus policy aimed at boosting domestic demand has temporarily alleviated some pressures, particularly in the tail end of the industry, but this is not indicative of a cyclical turning point [17][24]. - The "Three Principles" framework suggests that the bottoming out of cycles will be delayed, with negative cyclical risks anticipated in the near future [28][39]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on seven key industries contributing to 25% of China's GDP growth and 7% of exports, including air conditioners, solar modules, lithium batteries, electric vehicles, power semiconductors, steel, and construction machinery [3][16]. - The analysis shows that while there has been some improvement in capacity utilization rates, the overall competitive landscape remains challenging, with many companies still operating at negative or zero cash margins [36][37]. Capacity and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that the capacity utilization rates for the seven industries are projected to average around 63% in 2025, which is higher than the actual values for 2023-24 but still indicates potential for future declines [22][24]. - The stimulus measures have led to significant pre-purchase demand, particularly in the electric vehicle and air conditioning sectors, with estimates suggesting that these policies could drive demand significantly above baseline levels [24][26]. Industry-Specific Insights - The solar industry is noted to be closest to a turning point, while the electric vehicle sector is characterized by the weakest profitability and steepest cost curves, indicating a need for market consolidation [4][28]. - In contrast, leading manufacturers in the air conditioning, lithium battery, and construction machinery sectors maintain relative cost advantages, which may provide them with a more stable position in the market [4][19]. Future Outlook - The report concludes that while some industries may experience temporary relief from policy measures, the underlying structural issues and excess capacity will likely lead to continued challenges in achieving sustainable profitability [17][25]. - The anticipated demand recovery is seen as fragile, with potential risks associated with the tapering of stimulus measures in the coming years [28][39].