BioKangtai(SZ:300601) Goldman Sachs·2025-07-02 03:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for BioKangtai is Neutral with a 12-month price target of Rmb19, indicating an upside potential of 25.6% from the current price of Rmb15.13 [10][9]. Core Insights - BioKangtai's DTaP-Hib vaccine sales are expected to decline by approximately 80% in 2025, which will offset the revenue growth from newly launched products such as the varicella vaccine and human diploid cell rabies vaccine [2][8]. - The company anticipates some level of revenue growth in 2025 despite the decline in DTaP-Hib sales, supported by the strong performance of PCV13, which has a penetration rate nearing 30% [2][8]. - Significant increases in R&D expenses are expected due to pipeline expansion and clinical advancements, leading to profit targets remaining roughly flat compared to 2024 [2][8]. Business Performance Update - The ongoing anti-corruption campaign in the healthcare industry has led to a reduction in inventory levels within the CDC systems, negatively impacting shipment volumes and revenue in 2024 [2]. - The company has observed continued growth in actual sales of PCV13, with strong revenue growth in Q1 2025 supported by the ramp-up in sales of newly launched vaccines [2][8]. Overseas Business Progress and Outlook - BioKangtai's international expansion aims to increase capacity utilization with minimal additional costs, although overseas business is not expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth in the near term due to low vaccine prices in developing countries [3][6]. Pipeline Development Update - The company expects key pipeline projects, including the DTcP-IPV-Hib vaccine and PCV20, to be approved in 2027 and 2028, respectively [7]. - The approval and launch of the IPV vaccine is anticipated within the current year, followed by adsorbed tetanus and quadrivalent influenza vaccines in 2026 [7]. - There is a growing emphasis on adult vaccine development in response to declining birth rates, with potential expansion into other business areas such as antibody drug development [7].