高盛：中国CDMO第二季度订单发展势头延续；医疗科技与服务板块更有可能在 2025 年下半年复苏

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies including Asymchem, Weigao, AngelAlign, and Hygeia, while Tigermed is rated as "Neutral" [28]. Core Insights - The momentum in the CDMO sector continues into Q2 2025, with a focus on opportunities arising from China biotech licensing and GLP-1 developments, although revenue potential remains unclear due to technical complexities [2][10]. - The MedTech and Services sectors are experiencing a muted recovery, with ongoing policy headwinds affecting pricing and volumes, but some companies are showing resilience through new product launches and overseas expansion [3][14]. Summary by Sections CDMO/CRO - Q2 order momentum has sustained from Q1, with most companies reporting qualitative trends, while quantitative updates are expected in July/August [9]. - Top-tier CDMOs derive only 10-20% of their revenue from China, limiting the earnings impact from recent biotech licensing deals [2][9]. - Asymchem is favored for margin improvement in FY25, driven by emerging services, particularly in obesity-related modalities [2]. MedTech & Services - Recovery in device and service volumes remains subdued, with DRG/DIP reforms continuing to pressure pricing and volumes, though minimally invasive surgeries are less affected [3][14]. - Weigao is highlighted for its attractive valuation and new product contributions, while AngelAlign is on track for global expansion [3][14]. - Surgical volumes showed mild recovery in 1H25, with expectations for stronger growth in 2H due to easing policy headwinds [14][16]. Services - Ongoing reimbursement and regulatory pressures are challenges, but there are signs of improvement in reimbursement efficiency [17]. - Companies like Gushengtang are shifting towards self-pay services to align with rising demand from the "silver economy" [20]. - M&A sentiment is improving, with companies like Hygeia exploring partnerships for capacity expansion [20]. Guidance - WuXi Apptec expects FY25 revenue growth of 10-15%, while Asymchem anticipates double-digit growth alongside margin improvements [21]. - Weigao projects FY25 revenue growth of 10-15%, and Gushengtang aims for over 25% growth [21].