纸浆数据日报-20250702

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, the pulp market is expected to be bearish [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On July 1, 2025, for futures prices, SP2601 was 5216, down 0.72% day - on - day and 2.50% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5060, up 1.00% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; SP2509 was 5026, down 0.75% day - on - day and 2.14% week - on - week [1] - For spot prices, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.67% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5120, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.58% week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4020, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.74% week - on - week [1] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes (in dollars): Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353 tons in April 2025, down 30.80% compared to March [1] - In terms of domestic production, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in different weeks in June 2025 [1] Inventory - The pulp port inventory on different dates in June 2025 fluctuated, with 216.3 tons on June 26, 2025, down 4.5 tons from the previous period and 2.0% week - on - week [1] - The delivery warehouse inventory also fluctuated, with 24.60 tons on June 26, 2025 [1] Demand - The production of major finished papers such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard decreased this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On July 1, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 94 with a quantile level of 0.84; the Silver Star basis was 874 with a quantile level of 0.972 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16 with a quantile level of 0.65; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 567 with a quantile level of 0.186 [1] Summary - Supply side: On June 20, Arauco lowered the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) for June by $20/ton to $720/ton, and the shipment volume to China increased by 3.3% month - on - month, showing an increase in quantity and a decrease in price [1] - Demand side: The production of major finished papers decreased this week, and the prices of finished papers were low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - Inventory side: As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.3 tons, showing a de - stocking trend [1]