美元再创新低，贵?属短线反弹

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on gold and a cautiously bullish view on silver in the second half of the year [1][3] - If the non - farm payroll data and tariff progress do not deteriorate significantly, gold may need to consolidate within a range this month; if they deteriorate significantly, the gold price is expected to rise with fluctuations, and silver is expected to follow the gold price in the short term [1][3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, with an expected value of 48.8 and a previous value of 48.5; the output index was 50.3, the previous value was 45.4; the manufacturing price - paid index was 69.7, the expected value was 69, the previous value was 69.4; the employment index was 45, the expected value was 47, the previous value was 46.8; the inventory index was 49.2, the previous value was 46.7; the new orders index was 46.4, the previous value was 47.6 [2] - Fed Chairman Powell stated that most Fed members expect interest rate cuts later this year, the labor market is gradually cooling, it's uncertain if a July rate cut is too early, no meeting is excluded and it depends on data, the Fed's current monetary policy is moderately restrictive, and the economy and labor market are stable [2] - In May, the US JOLTs job openings were 7.769 million, with an expected value of 7.3 million and a revised previous value from 7.391 million to 7.395 million [2] - In May, the US construction spending decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with an expected decrease of 0.2% and a revised previous value from a decrease of 0.4% to a decrease of 0.2% [2] Price Logic - The US dollar reached a new low, and the US Treasury yields declined simultaneously. Most commodities rebounded, and precious metals showed a significant upward movement [1][3] - The US June ISM manufacturing PMI improved slightly. Job openings indicate that the employment market demand remains resilient. The Fed Chairman's remarks became more dovish, and the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year increased slightly. Fed Watch shows three rate cuts within the year, with the first cut still expected in September [1][3] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [3]