新能源及有色金属日报：多空博弈较大，碳酸锂盘面振幅加剧-20250702

Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 1, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 62,140 yuan/ton and closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 1.15% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 398,387 lots, and the open interest was 326,676 lots, a decrease of 4,148 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 592,395 lots, a decrease of 4,592 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 9,815 lots from the previous day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.82. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 22,940 lots, an increase of 312 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 1, 2025, the quotation of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 - 62,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,200 - 60,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot inventory was 136,800 tons, including 59,000 tons in smelters, 40,600 tons in downstream, and 37,200 tons in other inventories. The spot transaction price center of lithium carbonate remained stable for the time being. The lithium carbonate market continued the basic pattern of oversupply, with prominent supply - demand contradictions. The market had sufficient available goods, and the inventory pressure was not effectively alleviated. Downstream cathode plants had an expected increase in production in July, but currently mainly made rigid purchases, with no obvious increase in inventory - building willingness, and the market had strong wait - and - see sentiment and few transactions [2]. - In June, the domestic lithium carbonate market significantly increased production. The monthly total output increased by 8% month - on - month and 18% year - on - year, reaching 78,090 tons [2]. Group 2: Strategy - Overall, the fundamentals were weak, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. The production of material factories in July had a certain increase, providing short - term support for consumption. The warehouse receipts would be cancelled in July, and recent news of production cuts on the supply side led to enlarged fluctuations in the disk. In the medium term, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and the willingness to sell for hedging after a rebound was strong [3]. - For trading strategies, it was recommended to sell for hedging at high prices in the unilateral market, and there were no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading [5]. Group 3: Figures - There were figures including the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%), the price of domestic industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%), the weekly total output of lithium carbonate, the weekly statistical inventory of lithium carbonate, the statistical inventory of lithium ore, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts [6].