欧元区6月制造业PMI超预期，关注美国6月ADP数据

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation in China, the US, and the Eurozone shows mixed trends, with trade - related factors and policy expectations influencing the markets. Macro - inflation trading is heating up, and investors should pay attention to specific sectors such as commodities and precious metals [1][3][4]. - The uncertainty of trade policies and the divergence between the US government and the Fed on monetary policy add to the complexity of the economic and market environment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - In China, the May data was mixed. Investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, and exports were under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. The June official manufacturing PMI and other indices improved slightly, but the manufacturing PMI remained below the boom - bust line. The central bank's net injection in June was high, and attention should be paid to potential policy support from the July Politburo meeting [1]. - The US 5 - month retail sales declined significantly, mainly due to the drop in car purchases. The June Markit manufacturing PMI remained in expansion, and the price index had a large increase. The Fed is cautious about taking action on tariffs, and the "Big Beautiful" bill's passage is uncertain [3]. - The Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI reached a high level since 2018, and the June CPI met the ECB's target, providing a basis for pausing rate - cuts [2]. Trade Negotiations - The US tariff delay policy is approaching its expiration. The EU is willing to accept the "benchmark country tax" but seeks exemptions and quotas. The EU - US trade negotiation is ongoing, and the EU denies making concessions in the technology field. The UK - US trade agreement has taken effect, and Canada has canceled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations. India and the US are deadlocked in trade negotiations [2]. Policy and Legislation - The Fed plans to relax key bank capital regulations. The stable - coin legislation may be introduced in mid - July, but its prospects are unclear due to the divergence between the US government and the Fed. The US Senate has suspended the review of the "Big Beautiful" bill due to internal Republican disagreements [3]. Sector - Specific Analysis - In the commodity market, the macro - inflation trading is heating up. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and gold related to inflation expectations are worthy of attention. The black sector depends on domestic policy expectations. Anti - dumping duties on stainless steel products from certain regions will continue for 5 years. In the energy sector, the EU will extend sanctions on Russia, and the oil price is affected by geopolitical factors. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6 [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [5]. Key Data - China's June official manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, and comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points respectively from the previous month [1]. - The US 5 - month retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since March 2023 [3]. - The Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and the June CPI initial value increased by 2% year - on - year [2][7].