化工日报：沙特装置大面积短停，EG尾盘上涨-20250702

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term weak performance under increasing supply and decreasing demand, but limited downside space [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - Due to power issues, four sets of Saudi Arabian devices had a large - scale short - stop, with a total capacity of 2.15 million tons, and are expected to resume operation within 1 - 2 weeks. Affected by this news, EG prices rose in the late trading session [1] - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1] - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure still shows a benign inventory reduction. However, after the warehouse receipts are gradually cancelled and flow out, the transferable spot in the market will be supplemented to a certain extent. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas devices are gradually restarting, and foreign ships will arrive in a concentrated manner at the beginning of July. On the demand side, the current situation is strong, but several major bottle chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the beginning of July, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - Not elaborated in the text Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Not elaborated in the text Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1]