黑色建材日报：市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行-20250702

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [2] - Iron Ore: Rebound and hedge on opportunity [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [7] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [9] Core Views - Steel: Market expectations are weak, and steel prices are oscillating. Steel has entered the traditional off - season, with a slight increase in production and a slight decrease in inventory. Exports are resilient, and prices are generally stable [1]. - Iron Ore: Market sentiment has weakened, and ore prices are oscillating downward. Supply is rising, and there is an expectation of port inventory accumulation. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Supply is expected to increase, and prices are oscillating weakly. Coke supply may decline further, and demand is weakening. Coking coal supply will be in a loose pattern in the medium - to - long term [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: Mines have resumed production, and demand is expected to strengthen. In the short - term, prices will rise slightly, while the supply is in a loose pattern in the long - term [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, rebar futures closed at 3003 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3136 yuan/ton. The speculative atmosphere was weak, and the spot market transactions were generally weak, with enterprises mainly making necessary purchases. The national building materials transaction volume was 100,000 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: In the off - season, production is slightly up, and inventory is slightly down. Rebar inventory decline supports prices, and the plate market has strong supply and demand. Exports are resilient due to low prices, and macro sentiment has improved [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral - neutral; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices oscillated downward. Spot prices of mainstream imported varieties slightly declined. The total trading volume of main ports was 1.058 million tons, a 18.08% increase, and the forward spot trading volume was 1.54 million tons, a 116.90% increase [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume has declined, but overall supply is rising. There is an expectation of port inventory accumulation in the off - season. Iron ore consumption is resilient, and the short - term rebound height is limited [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral - hedge on rebound opportunities; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated downward. Coke 2509 closed at 1388.5 yuan/ton, a 2.46% decline, and coking coal 2509 closed at 814.5 yuan/ton, a 3.32% decline. The import market was weak [5][6]. - Logic and Views: Affected by market sentiment, coking coal and coke futures are weak. Coke supply may decline, and demand is weakening. Coking coal supply will be loose in the medium - to - long term [6]. - Strategy: Coking coal - oscillation; Coke - oscillation; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: Mines have resumed production after the safety month, increasing supply. With rising temperatures, traders' bullish sentiment may drive up demand. Port inventory has decreased, and the market sentiment is positive. The import market is stable [8]. - Demand and Logic: In July, supply increases, and demand is expected to strengthen in the short - term. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [8]. - Strategy: No strategy provided [9]